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grass disaster
05-19-2005, 12:05 AM
this is my theory.

in about 3-5 years when the housing market slows down there will be an over abundance of lco's running around.

in my opinion the housing market is bound to come to a screeching halt. when this does there will be thousands of carpenters,and various other tradesman, looking for work. they will all be thinking....... well now that we built all these houses now why don't i go and cut their lawn. besides i already have this big truck and this old wood hauler of a trailer. all i need now is a mower, trimmer and blower and i'm set to go. best of all i can still work on my tan.

agree? disagreed

topsites
05-19-2005, 12:49 AM
I dunno but I'm a solo lawnboy with 52 grass accounts and I'm cutting 10 yards/day, sustained. Do that for 3, 4 days and then it's off to do mulch for a day (8-12 cu. yds/day delivered & spread), or just whatever other stuff needs doing. I am grossing 1,000 bucks every 3-4 days of actual work, by myself. No I am not joking, last week's deposit is for 1,800 dollars and it's 4 days ahead of schedule.

And I'm constantly getting new calls and requests... LOL

Slow-down in 2-3 years? Nobody can see that far ahead.

Only thing has me worried is I've been running Peak Fuel budget for 7 weeks straight and the tanks are persistently down to critical levels by end of week. But so long I don't run out, the prices stay the same as last year.
Besides, I just got the 1986 D-250 past 14mpg.

Laters.

Watkinslawnservice
05-19-2005, 12:55 AM
I could see the housing market someday slowing down a little bit but as long as people keep making more people there will always be a good housing market. We have to put them somewhere. Plus if you are the established company when(and if) this happens the burdon will be on the newcomers not you.

DennisF
05-19-2005, 01:04 AM
I agree with part of your prediction. The part about more competition.

But...I don't think that the housing market will decline appreciably in the next few years, or even in the foreseeable future. With all of the baby boomers retiring (I'm one of them) over the next 10-15 years, the demand for new home construction will skyrocket, while existing home sales should decline.

These baby boomers will want:

1.) Low maintenance on their part...meaning more work for the service sector.

2.) High quality products and services, since they are retiring with a nice nest egg and are willing to spend money for comfort and most of all...quality.

3.) Recreation and entertainment. Swimming pools, golf courses, high end dining....you get the idea.

4.) This is the big one...convenience...meaning easy access to services. Most of the boomers that I know have worked their asses off all of their lives and want to relax and be....lazy when they retire. It's part of retirement and they feel that they deserve a laid back retirement. And they will be willing to pay for it...believe me.

I truly believe that the baby boomers will be the salvation of the lawn care industry. They will be willing to pay more for lawn care (if it is high quality) because they have a healthy respect for people that perform manual labor. I know I do, because I worked my ass off, and I'm no different than any other ass busting Baby Boomer.

This business WILL get better. Prices will rise to a level that is sustainable and reasonable.

Your job is to survive until it happens.

Doster's L & L
05-19-2005, 01:43 AM
I really don't see housing ever slowing down. Now if the US were to have a nuclear bomb dropped on us, or serin gas to be dispersed throughout the country which wipes out most of the population of the country, then i could see housing slowing down. As long as people are reproducing, housing is not gonna slow down. Right now, the world's population is sky rocketing and has been since 1950+/-. Unless something dramatic happens, by 2030 i believe, there will be 20 billion people on the Earth. So no, i don't see housing slowing down any. I see it increasing!!

Tharrell
05-19-2005, 06:44 AM
I guess that could happen. Anytime a big layoff occurs, they show up. Most don't realize how hard the work is, or how to deal with people. Also, they probably won't get accounts that require professionalism like commercials or high end residentials.

GreenUtah
05-19-2005, 01:04 PM
I'll go with Dennis on this. Baby Boomers seeking their retirement lifestyle will drive all service industry and health care sectors. Immigration policies are not stemming population growth in any way and having a home is the American dream. Housing growth will continue as long as people can afford to build, maybe not in areas you expect, but it will continue.

oldturf
05-19-2005, 03:28 PM
Guys, baby boomers ,thats me, are going to downsize. The big home market is going to drop. We want condo's or some type of low maintenance life style. My wife wants smaller house to care for and less responsibility so we can travel. Tells me to get out of this summertime business or hire somebody to run it. At the rate I am going with employees, it don't look good. Just my perspective.

orangejbird
05-19-2005, 03:41 PM
"Right now, the world's population is sky rocketing and has been since 1950+/-. Unless something dramatic happens, by 2030 i believe, there will be 20 billion people on the Earth."

All the new LCO upstarts (from losing their construction jobs here) could go to Indonesia to mow high-rise balconies. :cool2:

aclassic
05-19-2005, 04:02 PM
yeah, i'm not worried about the next 3-5 years, and yes the baby boomers will help out alot w/ growth in our industry...but its what happens in 20-30 years when they're all dying off, then is when we may see problems.

Mgardner
05-19-2005, 06:24 PM
Thats why I don`t just cut grass, thank God. When one industry takes a dive another jumps ahead. I plan on being, just like always, ready to get into other maintenance services. At present we are swamped and I can`t figure out what all these SUV pulling trailers, pretty little vans pulling tiny trailers with even a Z on board are getting any work. Nice pretty SUV`s with a pefectly clean Deere Z and a little 21. What in the blazing hell kind of friggin accounts do these people have that affords no clippings, no debris? How can you friggin MOW without BAGGING when you #1 get rained out for four days, #2 when you arrive its nice lush thick turf waving in the breeze. Turf that would kill these little homeowner ryders. Yet.....they are everywhere every age WHOOPS I have to run the reel back to when I used wooden ramps and a little blue DIXON Z !!!!!! ARRRRRRGGGGGGHHH :realmad:

HighGrass
05-19-2005, 10:12 PM
All of my friends said I was nuts to get into this business two years ago. Today there seems to be twice the number of LCO's as there were when I first started but you know what? This month I have averaged a call a day for lawn service and my closing percentage for new accounts is at 99%. By the end of this month I should be between 40-50 accounts.
I'm solo with just a LazerHP 52", an Echo 3200R, a Echo hand blower, and an old lawnboy that's as old as dirt. My average lawn is at about 40 bucks.
Around here (college area) there are alot of folks that really don't want to bother with anything that deals with labor or getting dirty. And, new homes are a small fraction of my accounts.

I think people will get even more lazy as time goes on. Especially those that want a family, and don't want to stop working. They won't have the time or inclination to mow on the weekends.

grass disaster
04-24-2007, 08:43 PM
this thread is 2 years old......well my prediction happened a little sooner than i predicted. in my area the housing market came to a screeching halt.

i talked to a friend of my who runs a large landscape company in town. they are very slow. he said he only has about 4 weeks of work lined up this year. last year at this time he said he had a half a year lined up.

he said that with the slow housing market. the cement guys have no cement work and they are getting into landscaping. he said they are low balling him. asking the homeowner how much he wants and then undercuts.


i also talked to a friend that owns a large lco he said his crew lost 2 full days work

cantoo
04-24-2007, 10:39 PM
I'm in the housing business and I can't wait for it to slow down. It just might be the kick in my azz to make me go full time. We have enough equipment but I'm just too lazy yet.

capelawncare.com
04-24-2007, 10:58 PM
If you are so concerned about the state of housing market, call a stock broker, and ask him to sell you PUTS on companies in the housing sector.

Sub Prime mortgage lenders are going bust left and right. Alt A mortgage lenders are falling into the same boat. Large publiclly traded builders are posting a steady stream of bad news.

A few well placed trades in this market could net you a years worth of income.

But I dont see a slowdown....maybe in lower to moderate income areas. But overall no.

Grits
04-24-2007, 11:37 PM
They are steady building neighborhoods around here.

Liquidfast
04-24-2007, 11:42 PM
If you are so concerned about the state of housing market, call a stock broker, and ask him to sell you PUTS on companies in the housing sector.

Sub Prime mortgage lenders are going bust left and right. Alt A mortgage lenders are falling into the same boat. Large publiclly traded builders are posting a steady stream of bad news.

A few well placed trades in this market could net you a years worth of income.

But I dont see a slowdown....maybe in lower to moderate income areas. But overall no.

ooooops. I found what I was looking for.

Scag48
04-25-2007, 01:03 AM
Don't see how the housing market, as a whole, could ever stop. I understand how the economy could dry up in a specific region, but parts of the US are booming and others aren't. I would like to point out that a lot of guys on this forum like to sit around and stew about what's going to happen in the future instead of making their future work for them. Just a thought, but instead of worrying about it, spend that time doing something to better your business so you won't have to worry about such issues if they occur. Just my .02

causalitist
04-25-2007, 02:15 AM
I could see the housing market someday slowing down a little bit but as long as people keep making more people there will always be a good housing market. We have to put them somewhere. Plus if you are the established company when(and if) this happens the burdon will be on the newcomers not you.

prices fell a few percent last month(national average).

house prices(demand) moves in lockstep with inflation.(~3%/yr)

recently it has been way above.

we are in for what nobel prize winners call reversion to the mean.

causalitist
04-25-2007, 02:17 AM
i say save up money for when/if house prices fall a ton, and buy another.

thats a positive spin.

causalitist
04-25-2007, 02:24 AM
If you are so concerned about the state of housing market, call a stock broker, and ask him to sell you PUTS on companies in the housing sector.

Sub Prime mortgage lenders are going bust left and right. Alt A mortgage lenders are falling into the same boat. Large publiclly traded builders are posting a steady stream of bad news.

A few well placed trades in this market could net you a years worth of income.

But I dont see a slowdown....maybe in lower to moderate income areas. But overall no.

psssh thats old school. just short sell a REIT ETF. seven dolla trade. damn, i want nachos bad. salsa con queso or whatever. ya, it hurts deep inside.

brucec32
04-25-2007, 09:02 AM
Agree.

Also, there is not just a housing bubble in our economy. There are other serious structural problems in the economy that we have hidden with a burst of borrowing on both government and personal levels. Govn't will try to prop it up as long as possible with increased spending and borrowing, but I'd advise getting ready for a deep recession in a few years.

People have tried to warn us that you can't have an economy based on heavy debt, budget deficits, trade deficits, consumer spending on luxury items, and serf labor imported from other nations. That "labor shortage" we bemoaned will be gone in a heartbeat as the overheated housing market slows and other industries pour their unemployed workers into the market. The problem is, now that you have plenty of American workers you won't have plenty of customers. Everyone will be affected, not just housing related workers.

For those not intimidated or bored too much by macroeconomics, there are about a dozen books on the topic already out.