Recession?

[Richard Martin]

When and if a full blown recession hits how is everybody going to handle it? Are your route lists full of customers who's jobs might be affected by a recession or are your customers blue collar workers who weather recessions better?

I would say that my route list is about 60% recession proof. Amoung my list of "could-be-hurts" are a vice-president for USI, a mortgage broker, one guy who lives in a killer house but drives so-so cars and various beauracrats who work in D.C.

[Chip]

Here's my take on what might happen during a recession. First most homeowners hate to cut there lawn, second they don't have the equipment to do it if they are already paying you. I think they may give up weekend trips to Fridays and the Outback before they cancel thier lawn service. Every weekend around here there is a wait to get a seat at any eating establishment. This tells me theres lots of disposable income. The stock market hasn't hit the pocket books yet. Remember the grass grows because of moisture not economics.

[Roger]

Richard,
I agree with your concern. There was some discussion a couple of days ago, but nobody pursued the thread very much.

See thread 12158 (sorry, don't know how to put the address into a message).

The bears continue to roam where it counts, even today. Eventually, they will roam in the backyards too!

I'm solo and don't have upscale residential customers. They will not work with a solo operator only offering mowing services. I fear that some of them consider having the mowing done a discretionary item. When they look for places to start cutting expenses, I may be part of history.

[Charles]

W talking up a recession to get his tax plan passed. And now he talking up and "energy crisis for the whole country" to get his OIL cronies more drilling. We are just in a slow down that was desired by greenspan. Last i heard there was still 4.2% unemployment and thats very low. The economy is still producing over 130000 new jobs per month or quarter. Anyway the layoffs that are happening seem to be putting more people in the lawncare business and thats bad news for us. Its harder to replace the customer turnover rate with so many lawncare companies to choose from and bidding for the same customers.
I think the stock market dropping like it has will effect the retirees disposable income and therefore effect some of us who deal with the elderly or the early retirees. Higher energy prices means that people have less money to spend on luxuries.
But then again the drop in interest rates may offset alot of the bad stuff going on.

[skyphoto]

I would say we will all have to wait and see who is affected because the guy with the great house and soso cars might be the most well off because he has not wasted his money on a new 80,000. SUV every other yr but stuck in in a CD that is foolproof...Those people that look or sound bulletproof are usually not as safe as they let on....You guys would not believe the people that make 200,000.00 /yr and live month to month just trying to act like they make 400,000.00/yr?!?!?!?!?! It aint never enough!!!

[Chip]

That's so true skyphoto but those people will always find a way to keep there place cut so there neighbors don't know how much they are hurting.

[TLS]

I agree with Chip. While it may be harder to push "extras" the lawn itself will still need to be cut. They may have to cut back on "other" things, but in general they still stick with us during the slumps. Remember, for them to buy a decent "tractor" type mower, they will spend upwards of $3000.00, while if they just stay with me, it is only $1500 or so. Plus what homeowner wants to spend his whole Saturday afternoon mowing, when he can be spending it with his family.

[Evan528]

My main income is the extras! Mowing just gets my foot in the door and provides steady income. The reality is that most homeowners dont spend 3 grand for a tractor! they got o sears and buy one for 1 grand! I am not afraid of loosing mowing accounts.... Im afraid i wont have as many requests for extra services!

[Twotoros]

You mean we have not been in a recession. Oh you mean in the real world!! Seems my town is always in recession.

[pcs]

The way I look at it is that we are providing a service to these people who don't have time to do it or don't want to do it. True people have to cut back on some of there expenses when the economy is down but most people will cut back on go away for the weekends or going out to eat. I'm pretty confident that people will still pay for services.

[jimsmowin]

i've talked to a couple guys around here. the said there best years have been during a recession. instead of going on vacation for 3000.00 thy stay home and spend an extra 500.00 on lawn or land scape.

[awm]

Most of mine are on ss so until they cut that out
Ill work.Might not make much but Ill work.

[65hoss]

If these people are afraid of losing their jobs, they will put in more hours at work. This means less time for lawn.

[Paradise Yard Service]

Hawaii in a recession since 90! Now just coming out,only to go back cause Japan yen still looks bad, and the buying frenzy of the 80s will prolly never happen again.

I never had any problem getting/maintaining clients. In 89/90,I left the Lawn Business to pursue another business. Went well for a year and then it took a dive. Got back into the lawns and had 20 accounts in one month during a recession. Been a LCO since with 40 maintenance accounts.

Essentially this bidneh is recession proof. Any attrition on the low end will not matter. You will end up with mostly 'top drawer' accounts which will always keep you in the black (green in our bidneh). Top Drawer accounts make you look better. A recession has a way of streamlining our buisness.

You can do some upselling to all existing accounts making you more profitable as you don't drive to another account to get the same $$.

Hope this helps as I have ten years recession experience in operating a small but profitable lawn biz.

Oh yea, I just turned down another lawn my neighbor refered, see its not all that bad.

We need more recession so maybe I'll have time to surf! North Shore up today while I been wurkin.

Aloha,

P.Y.S.

[JimK]

Jim at TURF Magazine here. We're working on a "reader survey" in the magazine. At this point -- with hundreds of replies -- 93.3% of readers say that 2001 business looks to be at least the same ... better ... or simply "great". They also overwhelmingly say that they are planning on buying new equipment.

In the May issue of TURF, I want to publish these results -- but I'd love to have more about this from you. With Chuck's permission I'll be using some of the comments in this thread ... but please give me some more. As you know, I don't mention names (to protect the innocent).

Can you help me out?

P.S. -- I'm still lookin' for photos for the cover of the magazine. Haven't rec'd much from you folks. It's snowing like crazy today here in Vermont ... so we won't be takin' photos around here for a while.

[Evan528]

There is a interesting article in lawn and landscape... I think it was march's issue. Its was about the recession and how the media and news are causing it. The news is always talking about it which is causing people to get scared and not spend as much money. If the media would just leave it alone I dont think we would be facing this prblem.

[guntruck]

Evan, yes i read that too, the media they claim is hyping this recession way up. According to them the numbers dont really show much of anything which just proves the fact even more!!

[MJ]

This "recession" is simply a reflection of the stock market. I doubt that your customers are paying you with dividends. They still have the paycheck, SS etc (unless they've been laid off). If you notice, even the retirees that have part of their retirement based on the stock market aren't generally overly worried because when they retired they usually put that portion into conservative bonds. You can actually benefit from the recession if you use the lower interest rates to your advantage. Also, I read today that the price of almost everything is either coming down or can be negotiated.

Mick

[Eric ELM]

We lost a lawn customer that is heavy into stocks to a low baller. They said they had to conserve and went with someone cheaper. This is the first time we have lost a customer to a low baller. That's OK, we have several on a waiting list for our services. :)

[Evan528]

Eric, Hell be back a month begging you to come back after he misses those awsome stripes! When he calls just simply tell him "sorry, we filled your spot in our schedule 4 weeks ago"! Craftsman rider just dont stripe like dixie choppers! ;)

[joshua]

here is all i have to say about this the market has hit the bottom and now its gunna go up, slowly but it will, i've watched the markets for since i was 14. plus the guys and girls on cnbc say the same.

[Bassman]

Eric ELM,

Looking forward to the day I am so stocked full of good customers I have a "waiting list".

How many years did that take you to be in that situation?

[joshua]

bassman, get used to having waiting list i have on and yet every year i have to tell about 30 people that i will be unable to maintain their property. only if there was more time in the day.

[thelawnguy]

Today I mailed my application for Home Improvement Contractor registration.

I really have no immediate plans to enter this field on a full-time basis, but there is no reason why one shouldnt hedge their bets and keep all avenues open.

If the opportunity arises, I will be ready.

[Getmow]

How bad of a recession will determine its' impact on lawn care providers. Right now the unemployment rate is low. When or if the rate starts to rise there will be more people willing to work for less. Remember how most of us started out? Our home lawnmowing equipment in the back of the truck? There will be more people doing just that, not to start a business, but to survive.

[Mowman]

Most of my customers are seniors. They have to have someone take care of their lawn. I even raised my prices this year. Haven't lost a customer yet. Their response is I realize that the cost of FUEL is up and I thought there might be a price increase this year. Say what you want but I'm glad most of my customers are seniors. They pay well and APPRECIATE the things you do for them, where there's one senior there's a 1000 more. Just my .02 cents.
Mowman