PDA

View Full Version : Fuel Price Projections


elmo1537
01-07-2007, 09:46 PM
I am looking for anyone that has information or a website I could look at that has the projected fuel prices for 2007. I am trying to figure out cost and fuel is one of the biggest ones I need to figure out.

I am not looking for a bunch of people guessing the highest it will get but actual numbers.

Thanks in advance

lordmaximus240
01-07-2007, 10:03 PM
dont have a website for you....but our transportation engineer, thats our guy at work with a six year college degree to go with his six figure income, has corporate pojections. They are pojecting gas at 3 dollars a gallon by july with diesel running 25 cents higher. The calculations show a decline into december with an end of year at about 2.50 a gallon with diesel staying 25 cents higher. These are the projectons used by the transportation industry in which I work my full time job. take it for what you will

lordmaximus240
01-07-2007, 10:21 PM
these numbers are for the southeast us they have to be adjusted for other regions and factors such as tourist traps and large metropolitan areas. so take what you are paying now and go up @ 67 cents and thats what you will be paying in july

lawnpro724
01-07-2007, 10:26 PM
Based on where you live you can expect to pay around $3.50 a gallon by mid July. Here in IL they said we could see prices as high as $3.00 a gallon but more likely in the $2.65 a gallon rate. Last year around here we hit $3.29 a gallon.

K&M Lawn Care
01-07-2007, 11:30 PM
I am looking for anyone that has information or a website I could look at that has the projected fuel prices for 2007. I am trying to figure out cost and fuel is one of the biggest ones I need to figure out.

I am not looking for a bunch of people guessing the highest it will get but actual numbers.

Thanks in advance


Here is what the government forecasts

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html

elmo1537
01-08-2007, 12:21 AM
So if i projected 3.50 a gallon for regular unleaded and 3.75 for on road diesel I would be pretty close?

K&M Lawn Care
01-08-2007, 01:34 AM
So if i projected 3.50 a gallon for regular unleaded and 3.75 for on road diesel I would be pretty close?


Well, looking at the governements short range forecast, it looks like you projected kinda high. Just looking at this years projections and comparing it to last years numbers, the government is expecting average prices to be a little lower than last year.

Those are of course average numbers for the entire country and I don't know how your area compares to the rest of the nation. Here we are generally about a dime lower than the national average.

Richard Martin
01-08-2007, 06:24 AM
The last two years with high price spikes have been anomolies. In 2005 you had Katrina, in 2006 you had various different little world crisis that drove the price up. Barring some unforeseen crisis I think you can expect it to rise the historical average of around 30 to 35 cents for the summer. Give the oil companies an excuse and you will see it go up 50 to 75 cents. Give them a serious crisis and all bets are off.

elmo1537
01-08-2007, 10:57 AM
Last year in mid august we were looking at prices around 3.30 a gallon for regular unleaded.

DixieFerris
01-08-2007, 11:06 AM
Remember though Elmo, the Democrats have the House influence now, and soon they will have the next President, so gas will level off, maybe decline a little compared to what we have seen with Bush in office and the Republican House

fiveoboy01
01-08-2007, 12:28 PM
Remember though Elmo, the Democrats have the House influence now, and soon they will have the next President, so gas will level off, maybe decline a little compared to what we have seen with Bush in office and the Republican House

That's pretty funny and ignorant at the same time.

Our government/the President have pretty much zero control over the price of oil.

lawnpro724
01-08-2007, 01:11 PM
So if i projected 3.50 a gallon for regular unleaded and 3.75 for on road diesel I would be pretty close?

I would go ahead and be safe rather than sorry and figure your quote at $3.50 a gallon. Its not going to make huge difference in the price but the way gas prices are these day why take the chance. If Iran decides to blow up a tanker like they did years ago we could see the price of a barrel of oil go from $55 a barrel to $100 over nite resulting in around $5.00 a gallon for gas. Alway's leave a little wiggle room in your bidding.

LwnmwrMan22
01-08-2007, 02:54 PM
My question is this.

Why do you think your fuel cost is such a high percentage, that you need to be so exact with your figures?

Last year I grossed $150k, and my fuel bill came in at $15k for the entire year.

I'm talking about '05. I haven't sat down yet and ran all of the numbers for '06 yet.

Anyways, the year before '04, my fuel cost was about $11k.

The reason it went up so much was because the price in '04 was around $1.90 at its highest point, and '05 it hit $3.30 at some points.

MY point is, that unless its going to drop or raise by more than $1.25 or so / gallon, that you're not going to see much of a change in your bottom line at the end of the year, as long as you're somewhat in the ballpark.

I run about 25k / year on a truck, with about 1000 hours / year on a mower. Also run chainsaws / split wood in the winter, so that factors in as well.

If you run numbers like that, then you can compare to my numbers.

IF you don't run that much, then the effect the price per gallon will be even less on your bottom line, percentage change-wise anyways, unless you're doing one yard 200 miles away for $40.

Tim Wright
01-08-2007, 03:15 PM
Ok great, I am a buck a gallon off in my projections. Back to the numbers before I goof up.

Tim

elmo1537
01-08-2007, 03:18 PM
It is not that I wanted an exact number but we do cost analysis and profit projections on everything in the spring from weedeater string to fuel to new equipment. I would at least like to know within .25 where my fuel prices are going to be in the upcoming year. This way I can factor this into the total price we will be charging.

I know I might be able guess but that should be left for the lowballers and the lco that dont plan on making a career out of landscaping and lawn maintenance.

LwnmwrMan22
01-08-2007, 03:44 PM
It is not that I wanted an exact number but we do cost analysis and profit projections on everything in the spring from weedeater string to fuel to new equipment. I would at least like to know within .25 where my fuel prices are going to be in the upcoming year. This way I can factor this into the total price we will be charging.

I know I might be able guess but that should be left for the lowballers and the lco that dont plan on making a career out of landscaping and lawn maintenance.

This will be my 19th year running my LCO.

You can't tell now what gas prices will be 6 months from now. You can guess / hope that they'll be around the prices they were last year, which would mean somewhere around $2.75-3.25 / gallon.

Last night, the news said gas was the lowest in Alabama somewhere, at $2.07 / gallon. They said the lowest in Minneapolis / St. Paul was $2.17 / gallon.

Yesterday on my way to church, gas was $1.99 / gallon, so the news doesn't even know what the gas is, in their own state. Everywhere in my area it's $2.05 - 2.10.

Basically, my point is, if you're going to try to forecast the gas prices, tell me what the weather is going to be on July 31st as well, so I know if I need to take my wife somewhere for our anniversary if it's raining, or if I can tell her now that I'm going to work.

K&M Lawn Care
01-09-2007, 03:06 AM
Last year in mid august we were looking at prices around 3.30 a gallon for regular unleaded.


Ouch, thats a good bit higher than what we paid here. After I posted last night I went and looked up a map that shows price trends for different parts of the country and in NY you seem to have it bad. Right now it shows that we are in the $2.05-$2.20 range and that most of NY is in the $2.50-$2.65 range. But we all are better off than what the west coast is paying.

From looking at the info I figured what I would be paying here over the summer months would range from $2.40 to $2.75. Meaning prices in the spring would be in the $2.40 range and rise through summer to $2.75 before dropping back off next fall.

I like you was trying to get an idea of what to expect when I looked this information up, but like someone else said what really ends up happening is anybodies guess.