N prices going down after November

[americanlawn]

Just checked the futures. Looks like natural gas prices will slowly decline after this month -- all the way through April....from $6.50 now to 5.50 in April (MMBTU). This also means the price of N will decrease.

Anybody else see this? rscvp, thanks:usflag:

[MnLefty]

I wouldn't bank on a decrease in price any time soon. It takes a period of time for input costs (natural gas, oil, fuel for production/shipping etc..) to cycle through cost of fert. All of those costs have been going up for a year or more and just now we're starting to feel the effects of fertilizer prices going up... It will take a period of time with continued decline in the true cost of most inputs to see prices come back down a bit.

[rcreech]

I wouldn't bet on it!

Natural Gas prices although important to fert...is a very small piece of the pie.

Supply and demand is the driver, and with corn/ethanol, high export numbers ect....I think we are going to have a long road ahead.

Or atleast this is what I have been told on both the ag side and lawn side.

[upidstay]

N, P, and K prices are all expected to continue to rise, with no end in sight. P is up 200% in under one year, with N and K close behind.

Ethanol, China, and a couple of South American countries are seeing huge agricultural growth, and are gobbling up ag chemicals by the super tanker load.

[Hissing Cobra]

Just checked the futures. Looks like natural gas prices will slowly increase after this month -- all the way through April....from $6.50 now to who know's in April (MMBTU). This also means the price of N will increase.

Anybody else see this? rscvp, thanks:usflag:

I fixed it for you! :cool2: Just kidding. At this time, we're seeing record increases and I think rcreech is right, we're all in for bumpy ride.

[Bandit 1]

the problem is we ship a lot of our urea into the US, we are no longer a net exporter. hopefully with the price going up someone will take some of the urea plants in this country out of mothballs

[Marcos]

I've seen this 'attempt' at optimism happen just before winter a couple years ago.
Then, of course, the north winds begin to blow harder than usual and we get much different news come the following spring or summer.

[grassguy_]

Anticipate the fertilizer prices to keep there climb going as some prices have already jumped 10-15% on us beofre any winter/spring increases. As the demand goes higher and depending on how winter goes, which they are saying home heating oil and natural gas are going to go up again, the fertilizer prices will take off again be spring.

[rcreech]

Hey Grassguy....great to hear from you. Hadn't heard from you in a while so I figuered you were hammering out the lawns! Hope you had a great season!

To all,

I was at an ag meeting yesterday and Richard Brock (Brock and Assoc) was there. This guy is one of the best in the business and knows his markets be it grain, fert, stocks and everything else. He has been in the business for about 30 years and people listen when he talks!

This is what he said yesterday (shorted up of course)
- Grain markets are not up because of ethanol...they are up because of the index funds trying to make money.
- Crude is not up because of shortages...they are up because of the index funds because they are trying to make money. But he did say he thinks it will drop very soon.
- Dollar is way down and will probably going down farther (which will hurt us bad)!
- Natuaral gas is going to go through the roof as it always does in the winter
- He specifically talked about fert for a while. Due to the low dollar, and all time exports that is why the fert costs are so high! He claims that increased use of fert on corn acres has affected the market...but that the dollar and exports are what are killing us.

He says that we will be stuck in this trend for sometime until the dollar gets stonger! So I wouldn't expect fert to drop at all.

Better buy up why you can!

[Ric]

Just checked the futures. Looks like natural gas prices will slowly decline after this month -- all the way through April....from $6.50 now to 5.50 in April (MMBTU). This also means the price of N will decrease.

Anybody else see this? rscvp, thanks:usflag:

Ironically I read this post for the first time tonight while watching the Jeff Fowworth program "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader"

[Harley-D]

Actually laughed out loud at that one. Thanks, ric.

[Mscotrid]

I figure if you spent $13.00 per bag on Pre-E you better figure $15.00 next spring. I'm also budgeting fuel at $4.00 a gallon for next year. That might be aggressive on fuel but I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than angry and poor.

[coyoteman]

So with the american dollar so low i would expect us Canadians to see our fert. prices go down?. Any Canucks have some imput to our situation.

[americanlawn]

Never said N prices would decrease much. Or for very long whatsoever.

"Those who want to minimize their summer/fall 2008 fertlizer costs should lock in prices much earlier, take early deliveries, & prepay to take advantage of discounts whever possible".

Questions:

Nitrogen production is expected to increase and temporarily outgrow nitrogen demand during spring 2008. yes/no?

The abovementioned forcast came from: A) a lawn jockey, or B) Three different ag sources within the past several days?

The abovementioned quote came from: A) a lawn jockey, or B) a very large North American fertilizer manufacturer?



Ironically I read this post for the first time tonight while watching the Jeff Fowworth program "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader"

[Ric]

You have to look into that camera and say " I am not smarter than a fifth grader"


:dizzy::dizzy:

[americanlawn]

My info came from the latest two "Market to Market" reports via Iowa Public Television. These guys have been around for decades, and their track record is very fine.

Lawnsite asks for informative, clean, helpful, respectful, professional posts.:usflag:

Seems you and Jeff Foxworthy have your own agenda?:hammerhead:

If you offer facts or objective opinnions, that's great..........but so far:nono:

Ironically I read this post for the first time tonight while watching the Jeff Fowworth program "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader"

[rcreech]

Never said N prices would decrease much. Or for very long whatsoever.

"Those who want to minimize their summer/fall 2008 fertlizer costs should lock in prices much earlier, take early deliveries, & prepay to take advantage of discounts whever possible".

Questions:

Nitrogen production is expected to increase and temporarily outgrow nitrogen demand during spring 2008. yes/no?

The abovementioned forcast came from: A) a lawn jockey, or B) Three different ag sources within the past several days?

The abovementioned quote came from: A) a lawn jockey, or B) a very large North American fertilizer manufacturer?


Hey Larry! Hope all is going well for you!

I am not sure about your questions, but I can tell you that I was in two meetings last week (one in Indy and one here in OH) and the forecast is not good at all for us.

As far as N production increasing, I am not sure, but I know they are expecting great shortages in the spring. They say if you don't have your fert by spring we may not get it! This is on the ag side, but after the meeting I called my Lesco man and he didn't disagree! Thank goodness I have all my 28 for the farm in my tanks (wich locks on them) and lawncare fert in the barn!

In your questions you stated something about a quote for a very large NA fertilizer manufacturer....what do you mean by that? I don't think I seen any quotes from them unless I missed it.

And remember...If you watch - Are you smarter then a 5th grader...You might be a redneck!:laugh:

Have a good one Larry!

[Ric]

Yo Pasture Grass

They must not play Marbles at your grade school. Suzy Ethanol likes to win all those Cat Eye N Marbles and that leaves very few Cat Eye N Marbles for the rest of the players. Comrade Russy has a ton of Marbles but is no longer losing them cheap because Chin Lee and Chief Indica are also winning a lot of Marbles these days. Poor SAM has had his allowance cut and no one wants his Green Back Cats Eye marbles. Chin Lee and Capt Opec are even looking to get rid of all those Green back Cat Eyes in favor of Euro Cat Eye marbles. Pork Bellies and Hog Jowls are going to get expensive.


If you watch - Are you smarter then a 5th grader...You might be a redneck!


I will have you know, I represent that statement.

[Harley-D]

Interesting analogy. I gotta agree and am suprised that so many really ignore how much of all this revolves around the value of our "green back marble".

About 10 years ago, i went to niagra to do some gambling. $1.50 canadian for our $1.00. Now it's 1.07 to our 1.00. Isn't heading in a good direction i would say.

We(the country) now have to spend more to get the same amount(urea) we did last year and the price went up. And in a competitive market where china's needs have increased like 20%. So what looked like a 20% increase in price to us is actually 30% or better. (Right?)

Point is...The price of urea will not go down even if natural gas does. IMO

[DMSLANDSCAPE]

remember that Bush is going to bomb Iran in the next few months, as he does everything Israel orders him to do, thinking he will go to Jewish heaven, or something like that.

this will rally all the countries of the world against the U>S>

and raise our nitrogen prices through the roof.

we must reap what we have sown in the last 5 years.

all other products will also go up substantially, also.

bush has 4 aircraft carriers surrounding iran, so it will be any time.

[Marcos]

Yo Pasture Grass

They must not play Marbles at your grade school. Suzy Ethanol likes to win all those Cat Eye N Marbles and that leaves very few Cat Eye N Marbles for the rest of the players. Comrade Russy has a ton of Marbles but is no longer losing them cheap because Chin Lee and Chief Indica are also winning a lot of Marbles these days. Poor SAM has had his allowance cut and no one wants his Green Back Cats Eye marbles. Chin Lee and Capt Opec are even looking to get rid of all those Green back Cat Eyes in favor of Euro Cat Eye marbles. Pork Bellies and Hog Jowls are going to get expensive.




I will have you know, I represent that statement.


(This guy needs to be the President's secretary to the press!) :laugh:

[americanlawn]

Hi Ric -- that was very good, and I agree. Wish things would change for the better in the long haul, but I don't think that's gunna happen. Some farmers in western states could not even get their anhydrous this fall. The guys at "Market to Market" pointed out so many variables that it made my head spin........weather in Brazil, soybean/bio-diesel demand, and about a dozen other factors that influence the nitrogen market. Even the broken Canadian pipeline in Minnesota had a temporary influence.

I just hope the U.S. develops new technolgy or something? We'll see, but meanwhile, we're jacking up our application prices for 2008. I wonder how much Home Depot will charge for their fifty-pound bags next spring???

I'm wishing we had a bigger warehouse. We go through well over 200 tons of fert on our dry app's each year, but trying to store it all at once is not possible. If there is a temporary price break next spring, we'll jump on it for sure, but then there's the storage issue.

Thanks, Americanlawn

[rcreech]

Yo Pasture Grass

They must not play Marbles at your grade school. Suzy Ethanol likes to win all those Cat Eye N Marbles and that leaves very few Cat Eye N Marbles for the rest of the players. Comrade Russy has a ton of Marbles but is no longer losing them cheap because Chin Lee and Chief Indica are also winning a lot of Marbles these days. Poor SAM has had his allowance cut and no one wants his Green Back Cats Eye marbles. Chin Lee and Capt Opec are even looking to get rid of all those Green back Cat Eyes in favor of Euro Cat Eye marbles. Pork Bellies and Hog Jowls are going to get expensive.




I will have you know, I represent that statement.

:laugh: That is freakn awesome! You had to seriously put some thought into that!

That is great! :laugh:

[Ric]

:laugh: That is freakn awesome! You had to seriously put some thought into that!

That is great! :laugh:

rcreech

Thank you. But It is easy to be a clown when the straight man is a moron. But Heck I don't mean that in a bad way.

[americanlawn]

I know you don't Ric. I guess my original post was more hope than what will probably happen -- even though the 'Market to Market' guys call themselves experts. May I call you Hillary?

[Ric]

May I call you Hillary?

Pasture Grass

Call me anything you like. But People might think you are watch too much "Queer Eye for a Straight Guy.

[tremor]

Cute thread.

I'm not sure about Ric's marbles but Urea will be $500/ton soon enough so bagged NPK is going up more.

[Ric]

Cute thread.

I'm not sure about Ric's marbles but Urea will be $500/ton soon enough so bagged NPK is going up more.

Steve

You are Smarter than a 5th Grader":D :D

[phasthound]

Hi Ric -- that was very good, and I agree. Wish things would change for the better in the long haul, but I don't think that's gunna happen. Some farmers in western states could not even get their anhydrous this fall. The guys at "Market to Market" pointed out so many variables that it made my head spin........weather in Brazil, soybean/bio-diesel demand, and about a dozen other factors that influence the nitrogen market. Even the broken Canadian pipeline in Minnesota had a temporary influence.

I just hope the U.S. develops new technolgy or something? We'll see, but meanwhile, we're jacking up our application prices for 2008. I wonder how much Home Depot will charge for their fifty-pound bags next spring???

I'm wishing we had a bigger warehouse. We go through well over 200 tons of fert on our dry app's each year, but trying to store it all at once is not possible. If there is a temporary price break next spring, we'll jump on it for sure, but then there's the storage issue.

Thanks, Americanlawn

I just can't think of a better time than now to use organic based fertilizers. Price has always been the biggest objection to using organics. The causes of rising cost for synthetics are only going to intensify. As it stands now, organic fertilizers are less expensive that traditional fert, provide great results, are in growing favor with the public, and as a bonus contribute to cleaner water and less reliance on fuel costs. What's not to love?

[Mscotrid]

FYi on fert prices from The market website

(N) 1-11-07 $305-310 a ton
12-6-07 $428-440 a ton

(S) 1-11-07 $40-47 a ton
12-6-07 $250 to 290 a ton

(P)1-11-07$260.00 a ton
12-6-07 $560 to 570 a ton.

I do not have (K) pricing but you wonder why fert prices are going up a your supplier. That does not include fuel surcharge from trucking companies hauling the freight

[Marcos]

remember that Bush is going to bomb Iran in the next few months, as he does everything Israel orders him to do, thinking he will go to Jewish heaven, or something like that.



You're in the wrong forum, and on the wrong planet.

[americanlawn]

Thanks Mscotrid -- which site did you get your pricing? Any info regarding spot pricing/futures? Thanks:waving:

FYi on fert prices from The market website

(N) 1-11-07 $305-310 a ton
12-6-07 $428-440 a ton

(S) 1-11-07 $40-47 a ton
12-6-07 $250 to 290 a ton

(P)1-11-07$260.00 a ton
12-6-07 $560 to 570 a ton.

I do not have (K) pricing but you wonder why fert prices are going up a your supplier. That does not include fuel surcharge from trucking companies hauling the freight

[phasthound]

Materials cost in bulk tons.



December: 2005 2006 2007

Urea $400 $420 $560

SCU $530 $570 $630

Amm Sul $260 $265 $320

DAP / MAP $360 $360 $580

SOP $430 $440 $530

The only thing not going up is organic matter.

[americanlawn]

Still waiting for facts/sources. Got one response - source= Jeff Fixworthy. Maybe that says something???

[Ric]

Still waiting for facts/sources. Got one response - source= Jeff Fixworthy. Maybe that says something???

Pasture Grass

You want sources?? Watch or read the National News each day or read some of those industry Magazine that keep coming in the mail even though you didn't order them. You should at least know Corn is bringing $ 4.00 Bushel these days. Roundup Ready Corn Seed is selling for $ 130.00 a Bushel. BTW I know the price of Corn and seed and I don't even live in fly over country. Education and Intelligences are not related. But if you get an education you will at least have one of them.

[rcreech]

Pasture Grass

You want sources?? Watch or read the National News each day or read some of those industry Magazine that keep coming in the mail even though you didn't order them. You should at least know Corn is bringing $ 4.00 Bushel these days. Roundup Ready Corn Seed is selling for $ 130.00 a Bushel. BTW I know the price of Corn and seed and I don't even live in fly over country. Education and Intelligences are not related. But if you get an education you will at least have one of them.

Ric,

Roundup Ready corn alone is a very small part of the overall market now. About 59% or the corn planted is now Triple Stack...which is Corn Borer, Rootworm and Roundup Ready. This corn starts over $200 a bag. Just wanted to let you know that, as I would love to pay $130 a bag.

I remember paying $50.00 a bag!

[Ric]

Ric,

Roundup Ready corn alone is a very small part of the overall market now. About 59% or the corn planted is now Triple Stack...which is Corn Borer, Rootworm and Roundup Ready. This corn starts over $200 a bag. Just wanted to let you know that, as I would love to pay $130 a bag.

I remember paying $50.00 a bag!

rcreech

There was a day I could buy feed corn for less than a $ 100.00 a ton. Those days are gone forever. One thing about the new DNA seed corn, you can't knock is the PRODUCTION. A lot more bushels to the same area help make up for the price. Less pesticides also help the bottom line. I don't drought you are paying $ 200 a bushel for seed corn and expect it to go even higher. I knew a seed corn grower and there is a lot of extra work involved in growing seed corn.

But back to the original post of this thread. Anyone who thinks the price of anything is going down any time soon, has their head buried in the sand.

[Mscotrid]

Thanks Mscotrid -- which site did you get your pricing? Any info regarding spot pricing/futures? Thanks:waving:
go to WWW.fertilizerworks.com

[americanlawn]

Thanks Mscotrid. I'll add this to my favorites. I wish it showed projected prices after the spring planting season. But for now, I'm eating crow. (thanks Ric):laugh: Maybe then I'll be able to say, See - I told you so???:waving:

go to WWW.fertilizerworks.com

[Ric]

Thanks Mscotrid. I'll add this to my favorites. I wish it showed projected prices after the spring planting season. But for now, I'm eating crow. (thanks Ric):laugh: Maybe then I'll be able to say, See - I told you so???:waving:

Pasture Grass

I got a $ 100.00 that says you will still be eating more than just crow in the spring.

[americanlawn]

You're probably right. I'm hoping N prices will decrease after the 2008 North American planting season is complete. (I took my info off ag 2 sites). Meanwhile....I am NOT as smart as a fifth grader regarding this post.:cry: You know your sh$t Ric, and I respect it. Just hoping next May I can come back and say otherwise. BTW my "Hillary" remark was not intended to be personal.........so I take it back now, as I know you are not a liberal.

One thing's for sure ...........this post certainly attracted attention.:laugh:



I got a $ 100.00 that says you will still be eating more than just crow in the spring.[/QUOTE]

[golfguy]

I locked in all my 08 fert for 07 prices.

I do not have to pay until June 08 and got a 5% prebooking discount.

All in all should save 10-12%.

[americanlawn]

golfguy -------- Why didn't you tell me about this before?:laugh:

Nice move on your part for planning ahead.:canadaflag:

Thanks for the post.

I locked in all my 08 fert for 07 prices.

I do not have to pay until June 08 and got a 5% prebooking discount.

All in all should save 10-12%.

[americanlawn]

Today my liquid fert supplier called me. Offered the same price I paid last August. Said he expects N prices to go down in late spring 2008 after the North American spring planting season. This person is trusted & well known in the ag industry & media. He is also an Iowa farmer. WHO radio knows him well and considers him a trusted source.

I've accepted eating crow on this issue so I can temporily pacify some -- but I plan to remember those who merely offered harsh criticism & stupid sarcasim rather than facts regarding this issue.

Ric -- I'll be watching for what N prices are next late spring. (hope you don't mind).:laugh:

Moderators -- let me know if I should disclose my sources. Let me know, & I will. Thanks, americanlawn

[rcreech]

Today my liquid fert supplier called me. Offered the same price I paid last August. Said he expects N prices to go down in late spring 2008 after the North American spring planting season. This person is trusted & well known in the ag industry & media. He is also an Iowa farmer. WHO radio knows him well and considers him a trusted source.

I've accepted eating crow on this issue so I can temporily pacify some -- but I plan to remember those who merely offered harsh criticism & stupid sarcasim rather than facts regarding this issue.

Ric -- I'll be watching for what N prices are next late spring. (hope you don't mind).:laugh:

Moderators -- let me know if I should disclose my sources. Let me know, & I will. Thanks, americanlawn

Larry,

Your a lucky dog...as my liquid fert (28-0-0) that I use on the ag side has gone up 55% since last fall (32% just since May).

I hope you are right about the fert prices going down! I heard the exact opposite today. See the Lesco Poll Thread for what I learned.

I think the oil and fert boys have us over the barrel and they like it!

You may be right that AFTER planting it may stay steady, but I don't think it will go down. After planting this season the prices hasn't done anything but GO UP.

Did the fella you are talking about give any reason for the N price going down? I can't think of one, other then the corn acres are MUCH SHORTER then expected.

I definitly don't think you are stupid and haven't and never will criticize you...but I would love for some to eat crow so we can save some $$$$$$.

[FdLLawnMan]

Today my liquid fert supplier called me. Offered the same price I paid last August. Said he expects N prices to go down in late spring 2008 after the North American spring planting season. This person is trusted & well known in the ag industry & media. He is also an Iowa farmer. WHO radio knows him well and considers him a trusted source.

I've accepted eating crow on this issue so I can temporily pacify some -- but I plan to remember those who merely offered harsh criticism & stupid sarcasim rather than facts regarding this issue.

Ric -- I'll be watching for what N prices are next late spring. (hope you don't mind).:laugh:

Moderators -- let me know if I should disclose my sources. Let me know, & I will. Thanks, americanlawn

American

I hope you are correct but my gut says it will at best stay level during the summer. This is off topic bur what liquid fertilizer do you use. If you would rather PM me about it please do so.

Mike I
Mike's Total Lawn Care

[americanlawn]

It's Nutraflo. Nice results with no burn.