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View Full Version : Nitrogen price just went down


americanlawn
02-08-2008, 06:59 PM
All I gotta say is, "I told you so". :) My source: LESCO. Another source indicated prices will get even better this spring. I won't name that source for now. BTW, I've waited for 2 or 3 months before ordering more semiloads of fert -- looks like it will pay off.

Everybody that reponded to my original post regarding N prices going down soon said NO WAY. Maybe even never.:walking:

LIBERTYLANDSCAPING
02-08-2008, 07:51 PM
Thats good...IF it lasts. Kinda like saying yipee gas went down to $2.85, but it was short lived & bounced back. Some buyers are absent from urea market right now, and has caused a temporary demand decrease. Guess we'll see:waving:

americanlawn
02-08-2008, 08:03 PM
Thanks LIBERTY...lots of viewers. Only your post so far. I was hoping for replies from naysayers offering me FREE beers. LOL.......

LIBERTYLANDSCAPING
02-08-2008, 08:13 PM
I'll buy you one, but you'll have to drive 400 miles to get it:laugh:

rcreech
02-08-2008, 09:50 PM
All I gotta say is, "I told you so". :) My source: LESCO. Another source indicated prices will get even better this spring. I won't name that source for now. BTW, I've waited for 2 or 3 months before ordering more semiloads of fert -- looks like it will pay off.

Everybody that reponded to my original post regarding N prices going down soon said NO WAY. Maybe even never.:walking:

Larry,

I hope you are right! This is the first I have heard of any N going down. When are they saying it will go down...spring?

On the ag side they are still saying higher prices all the way through side dress (June)! There was just another large jump last week. Havn't talked to the lawn side yet.

I guess I will believe it when I see it! PM me if you don't want to post on here, but I would like to know who said this and why they think the price would go down?

Last I heard, two weeks ago everyone was talking SHORTAGE. To me that would say the price will stay up.

Corn acres are up, oil is up and so is exports. Just wondering how the "fert" guys would allow the price to "go down".

Talk to ya soon!

RC

DUSTYCEDAR
02-08-2008, 09:53 PM
up down up down :dizzy:

americanlawn
02-08-2008, 10:23 PM
I'll buy you one, but you'll have to drive 400 miles to get it:laugh:

LIBERTY -- you are almost as cheap as me....:laugh:

americanlawn
02-08-2008, 10:39 PM
rcreech -- I just sent you a PM regarding my 2nd source as well as when prices are expected to drop even more.
Everybody else -- please keep in mind that N prices are likely to increase again by August or September 2008.

Bottom line....I was BLASTED by one particular member because my original post suggested that nitrogen prices would come down. hmmmm. I guess I'm not a fifth grader after all? Ric ..... any response? Who is the 5th grader now???

rcreech
02-08-2008, 10:51 PM
[QUOTE=americanlawn;2142623]rcreech -- I just sent you a PM regarding my 2nd source as well as when prices are expected to drop even more.
QUOTE]

You say "expected to drop even more".

Has the prices already dropped or are they just saying they could?

How much have they dropped (or are they supposed to drop)?

Also, since Lesco and all the others have been shortin margins due to the increases are they going to "pass it onto us"?

Are they saying why this decrease is going to take place?

I am seriously surprised and this is news to me! Great news though!

americanlawn
02-08-2008, 11:09 PM
Not sure. Got a price from UAP for xx-#-# today. Waiting for LESCO's price. I can hold off for another 5 or 6 weeks before I need more product. Fortunately, we have large warehouse space, as we go through over 200 tons of fert per year.

zimmatic
02-09-2008, 07:16 AM
American I also heard that Nitrogen prices went down from my local supplier and it was the grunt guy in the mixing plant, the boss man didnt even tell me guss I am not that important. RC you need to talk to your suppliers in the ag side I have freinds in NE that farm 10's of thousand of acres and they told me it has also taken a dip. I dont know how long it will last. RC how much does it cost and Acre there for fert on corn or soybeans?
I know though I am with american on this I will buy the rest of my supply soon. "conspericy therory here" maybe prices are going down because it is an election year? kinda like gas prices going down. Just kidding

rcreech
02-09-2008, 08:30 AM
American I also heard that Nitrogen prices went down from my local supplier and it was the grunt guy in the mixing plant, the boss man didnt even tell me guss I am not that important. RC you need to talk to your suppliers in the ag side I have freinds in NE that farm 10's of thousand of acres and they told me it has also taken a dip. I dont know how long it will last. RC how much does it cost and Acre there for fert on corn or soybeans?
I know though I am with american on this I will buy the rest of my supply soon. "conspericy therory here" maybe prices are going down because it is an election year? kinda like gas prices going down. Just kidding

So how much are these prices dropping? If they went down...why didn't you go talk to the boss? I would have been very inquizative on this!

Just a week ago yesterday...I know that 28% and especially the stater ferts (containing P) went up big.

That news must not have hit OH yet. I am surprised too because the meetings I have been to, they are worried we may not have enough.

USUALLY supply and demand keeps price up...but maybe there is more to the story! I do see it slowing down or getting a little more steady, but dropping or dropping for very long would definitly suprise a lot of people I think!

I have it down to make several calls on Monday and I will see what they are saying over this way. I have some very good contacts from my past and they always have a good handle on the market.

On average for a complete program you are looking at about $130 an acre corn and about $25-35/ac for beans.

Alot of this depends on crop removal and also if you are on a buildup or maintenance program.

What state is your buddies in that is farming 10's of thousands of acres?

zimmatic
02-09-2008, 08:46 AM
Rceeh,
the price per acre on corn sounds about the same give or take 10/acre They farm in Nebraska, corn and soybeans, Some of them prebought and some are only 1/2done Rent is about 150-320 acre depending on where they are at within a 50-70 mile radious or irrigated. I didnt go talk to the boss because he wasnt there. However on next week I will. the pottash market is through the roof going to china I guess
I would agree with you though in the fact if the prices fall / keep falling then stabalize that would surprise alot of people. I dont belive that will happen to a degree that we all breath a sigh of relief. Prices have been on a march upward and you have the right idea supply and demand, at some time demand will deminsh to where price drop or there (fert manufactures ) input costs drop to lower price. However, I think the point american is making is that the prices did ease and drop so now is the time or near future to buy /lock in the year. Any edge on the cometition is the name of the game and buying/locking price in is part of the game.

phasthound
02-09-2008, 09:13 AM
My sources say N dropped 2 weeks ago but went back up last week.:dizzy:

rcreech
02-09-2008, 10:06 AM
Rceeh,
the price per acre on corn sounds about the same give or take 10/acre They farm in Nebraska, corn and soybeans, Some of them prebought and some are only 1/2done Rent is about 150-320 acre depending on where they are at within a 50-70 mile radious or irrigated. I didnt go talk to the boss because he wasnt there. However on next week I will. the pottash market is through the roof going to china I guess
I would agree with you though in the fact if the prices fall / keep falling then stabalize that would surprise alot of people. I dont belive that will happen to a degree that we all breath a sigh of relief. Prices have been on a march upward and you have the right idea supply and demand, at some time demand will deminsh to where price drop or there (fert manufactures ) input costs drop to lower price. However, I think the point american is making is that the prices did ease and drop so now is the time or near future to buy /lock in the year. Any edge on the cometition is the name of the game and buying/locking price in is part of the game.

I hear ya!

Yea - I was out in IL several weeks ago for a mtg and they were talking about $250-300 cash rent, but they are also getting 250 Bu corn.

I got curious so I figured up "the boys out west" input costs vs. vs ours. Even though they can gross over $1000 an acre where ours is about $550-600, we still make about the same due to added production costs (tillage, fert, pest apps, fuel, land rent etc).

Just kinda crazy that they handle so much more money, but at the end of the day we are mostly the same.

robertsturf
02-09-2008, 10:12 AM
Hey Americanlawn , aren't you supposed to get a new spray/spread buggy? I want to see pic's!!!

Ric
02-09-2008, 02:49 PM
rcreech -- I just sent you a PM regarding my 2nd source as well as when prices are expected to drop even more.
Everybody else -- please keep in mind that N prices are likely to increase again by August or September 2008.

Bottom line....I was BLASTED by one particular member because my original post suggested that nitrogen prices would come down. hmmmm. I guess I'm not a fifth grader after all? Ric ..... any response? Who is the 5th grader now???

Pasture Grass

This last Thursday a girl got all the way to the Million Dollar question. But she still had to look in the camera and say "I am not smarter than a 5th Grader" when she blew the the Million Dollar Question. Let us just say the Million Dollar Question still isn't answered yet, because we have yet to see a price drop in OUR cost. My price for 46-0-0, as per delivery yesterday, is still $ 16.24 a 50 lb bag.

fert
02-10-2008, 11:25 AM
prices not going done

americanlawn
02-10-2008, 02:01 PM
Ric -- in all fairness, I admit my original post suggested N prices would fall earlier than now.

I didn't ask how much N went down. All I know is that last Monday is when my LESCO guys got the word about a decrease. Hope your price goes down before your next order. I was quoted prices this past week for a 31 - X - X (25% SCU slow release) for a little under $13.75 per bag. Still waiting for quotes from two others. Then I'll pick the cheapest, as we'll start using this product by early March.

phasthound
02-10-2008, 03:28 PM
I hope you're right Larry.

I'm looking at raw materials pricing for the last month and there are minor fluctuations in urea and ammonium sulfate, but substantial increases in P & K.

The big picture shows a dramatic global demand for ferts and rapid increases in natural gas prices. Huge amounts of NG are used in the production of urea. Increasing shipping costs.

Domestic fert production has not increased in 50 years, no new plants have been built in 30 years, domestic demand is rising due to the biofuel craze.

We are entering a new era, things are changing and those who adapt best with thrive. There is more to this than just keeping turf green.

Ric
02-10-2008, 06:12 PM
Ric -- in all fairness, I admit my original post suggested N prices would fall earlier than now.

I didn't ask how much N went down. All I know is that last Monday is when my LESCO guys got the word about a decrease. Hope your price goes down before your next order. I was quoted prices this past week for a 31 - X - X (25% SCU slow release) for a little under $13.75 per bag. Still waiting for quotes from two others. Then I'll pick the cheapest, as we'll start using this product by early March.

Pasture Grass

You can keep dreaming like a 5th grader that prices are going down. But in Latin the words "it situ" means real life and in real life, don't expect free lunch or lower prices.

rcreech
02-11-2008, 02:30 PM
Larry,

I have not talked to my ag guys yet...but had to call Lesco this morning on some stuff and I asked them about what they were hearing on the price of N.

I asked them if is was going down and they laughed. They said that their prices have not come down at all. If you are looking at the "board" and N or natuaral gas drops...that doesn't mean we will see it!

Most of these guys have their N locked in way ahead so they absorb alot of the ups and downs and we just pay one price.

They said that there should be another price increase coming soon.

Did you actually just get a good price because of your volume I wonder, or because of the price of N?

From what I have heard in the last 3-4 months I think we are in for a long road....unless something changes (ie corn acres, exports, demand etc).

I will check on the as side here in a little bit!

americanlawn
02-11-2008, 03:25 PM
Larry,

I have not talked to my ag guys yet...but had to call Lesco this morning on some stuff and I asked them about what they were hearing on the price of N.

I asked them if is was going down and they laughed. They said that their prices have not come down at all. If you are looking at the "board" and N or natuaral gas drops...that doesn't mean we will see it!

Most of these guys have their N locked in way ahead so they absorb alot of the ups and downs and we just pay one price.

They said that there should be another price increase coming soon.

Did you actually just get a good price because of your volume I wonder, or because of the price of N?

From what I have heard in the last 3-4 months I think we are in for a long road....unless something changes (ie corn acres, exports, demand etc).

I will check on the as side here in a little bit!

Maybe your local LESCO guys need to check their emails more often:laugh:

americanlawn
02-11-2008, 03:29 PM
Pasture Grass

You can keep dreaming like a 5th grader that prices are going down. But in Latin the words "it situ" means real life and in real life, don't expect free lunch or lower prices.

Ric - if I don't see lower prices soon, I might have to put my old lady out on the streets to bring in more income:laugh:

americanlawn
02-11-2008, 03:37 PM
Hey Americanlawn , aren't you supposed to get a new spray/spread buggy? I want to see pic's!!!

Yep. Hoping to get it early April. If you're interested in trying one, please PM me. Thanks. p.s. I'll post pics as soon as I get permission from TURFCO. :usflag:

rcreech
02-11-2008, 04:23 PM
Yep. Hoping to get it early April. If you're interested in trying one, please PM me. Thanks. p.s. I'll post pics as soon as I get permission from TURFCO. :usflag:


I think these guys out here still don't believe in the "secret" machine do they Larry?

:laugh:

See ya soon!

robertsturf
02-11-2008, 04:36 PM
I am from the show-me state. So SHOW-ME!!

rcreech
02-11-2008, 04:44 PM
I am from the show-me state. So SHOW-ME!!

:laugh:

I hear ya!

Seriously...this machine will not be available until April.

We will just have to SHOW-YOU then I guess!

It is a nice machine!

SpreadNSpray
02-11-2008, 05:01 PM
:laugh:

I hear ya!

Seriously...this machine will not be available until April.

We will just have to SHOW-YOU then I guess!

It is a nice machine!

Could you tell me more about this machine? Are you building it? Do you have pics, specs, prices?

rcreech
02-11-2008, 05:24 PM
Machine is made by Turfco.

Still in the early stages but will be released this April.

Pics and specs are probably not an option right now unless you are getting a machine.

They are keeping it pretty quiet right now!

willietd2
02-11-2008, 06:51 PM
All I gotta say is, "I told you so". :) My source: LESCO. Another source indicated prices will get even better this spring. I won't name that source for now. BTW, I've waited for 2 or 3 months before ordering more semiloads of fert -- looks like it will pay off.

Everybody that reponded to my original post regarding N prices going down soon said NO WAY. Maybe even never.:walking:

yeah,gas prices went down to this week too,but i will bet they will be up next week.anyway im not going to hold my breath but i hope your right. by the way, my lesco source is sticking to there price but i have never seen two lescos with the same price.:nono: willie

SpreadNSpray
02-11-2008, 11:02 PM
Machine is made by Turfco.

Still in the early stages but will be released this April.

Pics and specs are probably not an option right now unless you are getting a machine.

They are keeping it pretty quiet right now!

Interesting. will it compete with the Perma green or the Zspray?

americanlawn
02-12-2008, 04:24 PM
Interesting. will it compete with the Perma green or the Zspray?

Yes it will. Owned or demo'd both of the above. Spent two hours with the new TURFCO last fall. Within minutes, I ordered one. If you are seriously interested, PM me, and I can give contact info.

Thanks:usflag:

americanlawn
02-12-2008, 04:31 PM
Just ordered six tons of Merit w/fert today. 23-0-8 w/.20 Merit. $32.00 per bag. This is over a dollar LESS than I paid a year ago. But Potash continues to get more expensive. A month ago, I paid $9.75 per bag for ice melt. Just paid $13.00 a bag last week.

Ric
02-12-2008, 08:44 PM
Just ordered six tons of Merit w/fert today. 23-0-8 w/.20 Merit. $32.00 per bag. This is over a dollar LESS than I paid a year ago. But Potash continues to get more expensive. A month ago, I paid $9.75 per bag for ice melt. Just paid $13.00 a bag last week.

Pasture Grass

Bayer lost the exclusive rights to Merit when the Patent ran out two years ago. Therefore Bayer has had to drop their price on Merit to stay competitive. You paid a lot less for Merit but a lot more for the Fertilizer this year. But the Merit price drop more than made up for the fertilizer price increase. So you are not smarter than a 5th Grader.

BTW Bayer no longer guarantees Grub control in Florida with Merit.

fert
02-12-2008, 09:25 PM
merit,you should be buying mallet for 28-29 per bag

golfguy
02-13-2008, 10:52 PM
I never took the time to read all the posts here. I was a naysayer back then and I still am now. The price of N may have very well dropped (not sure percentages) but I know the cost of Potash has risen 18% here in the last month.

Most, not all fertilizers contain balanced fertility packages and the overall price has definately increased.

As a side note, Lebanon, according to my supplier will hold prices for this year.

Thats one of the most contradictory things I have ever wrote but it is a fact based contradiction.