PDA

View Full Version : Recession


Sean Adams
06-23-2008, 05:38 PM
I'm sure many of you know or have at least read editorials by David Cassidy from Moose River. At Turf's site - http://www.turfmagazine.com there is a very good piece written by Mr. Cassidy about the recession or at least the idea we are experiencing a recession.

It is interesting reading - check out the link below

http://www.turfmagazine.com/article.php?id=1517

GPDesign1
06-23-2008, 07:14 PM
Sean,

While I do appreciate the "stiff upper lip" tone of David's comments and I agree with him to an extent that the state of our economy is somewhat a factor of faith and confidence, our country is facing real problems that are not going away with either Obama or McCain's empty rhetoric or soundbite solutions about vague change. The true culprit is inflation. The cause is out of control governmental spending.

We have allowed (and in some cases insisted that) our U.S. government be involved in every interaction of human existence. Just listen to any president's "State of the Union" address and you'll hear a litany of cradle to grave programs, all designed to micro-manage every aspect of society (with our dollars). Since the end of World War II, factions within our government have decided to "apply their brilliance" (often down the barrel of a gun) upon the rest of the world. Drunk with power and armed with (what used to be) the influence of the world's reserve currency, our government has sought to impose its will by way of the "stick and carrot". We have over 700 military bases in 130 countries around the globe. Even Rome never dreamed of such an empire. And just like Rome (and the Greeks and the Persians and the Babylonians, and the Turks and the Ottomans and all of the others that have tried) it's coming to an end. Why? Because we can't afford it.

Now, with the "war on terror", they've created the ultimate, perpetual, uncatchable boogey-man. Guaranteed to bleed the pockets dry of anyone with anything. All designed for the enrichment of a handful of global interests that benefit from war. The people in the Middle East don't hate us because we're rich and free: They hate us because we're occupying and manipulating what used to be their country (and about 130 other countries).

In my most humble opinion, the economic discomfort that American's are experiencing is the net result of a 50 year U.S. governmental policy of rogue and roughshod global interventionism. The chickens have come home to roost and once again, we're the ones who get to pay the price.

We used to have enough productive output to hide the expense of all this global adventurism, but its size is no longer concealable. Now, with American's taxed to the breaking point and foreign countries like China no longer interested in buying our debt, the Federal Reserve has but one choice; print the money. Did Congress really think they'd help anything by printing $160Bn "Monopoly dollars" and mailing them out? What fools. If "wealth" can be created that way, then why not send everyone a billion dollars?

Keynes, the supposed economic genius of the twentieth century (but who was in fact a socialist dolt) believed that rising commodity prices brought on inflation. It's the other way around. Inflation devalues your money.... it takes more of it to buy the same thing. Print too much and it takes a lot more of it. Might I suggest a quick "google" of "1933 Germany", or "Hyper-inflation"... you'll quickly spot the problem.

Until American's wake-up, re-engage their brains (you know, stop listening to Faux News) and decide that they want the limited, rational, constrained government that the Founders outlined in our Constitution (along with real, commodity-based currency that can't be manipulated), we'll just get more and more of the same.

It's time to send home all the "think-tank geniuses" , fire about 90% of the career beauracrats in Washington, unemploy all the parasitic lobbyists and for Americans to get back to the business of minding its own business here at home. We simply can't sustain this effort to run the world.

Two good sites:

DownsizeDC.com
Campaignforliberty.com

Howard Roark
06-23-2008, 08:15 PM
Whew.....

I cannot, and will not attempt to follow up on Gary's post, as it was SPOT ON.

I will say this, the article is Laughable at best. More obvious media propaganda touting fantasy rather than FACTS.

The real news is out there folks, you just simply have to go find it. Because "they" ain't gonna give it to you due to, shall we say......Agenda Conflicts?

"If yer gonna die, die with your boots on!"

k911lowe
06-23-2008, 08:18 PM
Sean,

While I do appreciate the "stiff upper lip" tone of David's comments and I agree with him to an extent that the state of our economy is somewhat a factor of faith and confidence, our country is facing real problems that are not going away with either Obama or McCain's empty rhetoric or soundbite solutions about vague change. The true culprit is inflation. The cause is out of control governmental spending.

We have allowed (and in some cases insisted that) our U.S. government be involved in every interaction of human existence. Just listen to any president's "State of the Union" address and you'll hear a litany of cradle to grave programs, all designed to micro-manage every aspect of society (with our dollars). Since the end of World War II, factions within our government have decided to "apply their brilliance" (often down the barrel of a gun) upon the rest of the world. Drunk with power and armed with (what used to be) the influence of the world's reserve currency, our government has sought to impose its will by way of the "stick and carrot". We have over 700 military bases in 130 countries around the globe. Even Rome never dreamed of such an empire. And just like Rome (and the Greeks and the Persians and the Babylonians, and the Turks and the Ottomans and all of the others that have tried) it's coming to an end. Why? Because we can't afford it.

Now, with the "war on terror", they've created the ultimate, perpetual, uncatchable boogey-man. Guaranteed to bleed the pockets dry of anyone with anything. All designed for the enrichment of a handful of global interests that benefit from war. The people in the Middle East don't hate us because we're rich and free: They hate us because we're occupying and manipulating what used to be their country (and about 130 other countries).

In my most humble opinion, the economic discomfort that American's are experiencing is the net result of a 50 year U.S. governmental policy of rogue and roughshod global interventionism. The chickens have come home to roost and once again, we're the ones who get to pay the price.

We used to have enough productive output to hide the expense of all this global adventurism, but its size is no longer concealable. Now, with American's taxed to the breaking point and foreign countries like China no longer interested in buying our debt, the Federal Reserve has but one choice; print the money. Did Congress really think they'd help anything by printing $160Bn "Monopoly dollars" and mailing them out? What fools. If "wealth" can be created that way, then why not send everyone a billion dollars?

Keynes, the supposed economic genius of the twentieth century (but who was in fact a socialist dolt) believed that rising commodity prices brought on inflation. It's the other way around. Inflation devalues your money.... it takes more of it to buy the same thing. Print too much and it takes a lot more of it. Might I suggest a quick "google" of "1933 Germany", or "Hyper-inflation"... you'll quickly spot the problem.

Until American's wake-up, re-engage their brains (you know, stop listening to Faux News) and decide that they want the limited, rational, constrained government that the Founders outlined in our Constitution (along with real, commodity-based currency that can't be manipulated), we'll just get more and more of the same.

It's time to send home all the "think-tank geniuses" , fire about 90% of the career beauracrats in Washington, unemploy all the parasitic lobbyists and for Americans to get back to the business of minding its own business here at home. We simply can't sustain this effort to run the world.

Two good sites:

DownsizeDC.com
Campaignforliberty.com

i agree 100 percent and that's not an inflated figure.

DA Quality Lawn & YS
06-23-2008, 08:46 PM
I agree with many of Gary's points - need to get our dollar worth something again, that would be a nice big step. Our economy is in tough times now obviously on a variety of indicators. However, as individuals, lets not sit back and just go 'woe is me, I'm doomed' because the media says so. My LCO is doing great this year, my wife and I are saving funds for retirement at record pace, and we are buying goods/services just like we always have. We are right-down-the-middle class by the way. In these econ. conditions, you (yes you and your family, not the govt) just have to find a way, to quote Larry "to git er done!"

I don't agree that the world would be at peace if the US didn't intervene in anything - we would still be attacked on a variety of fronts and would have to deal with that issue somehow. Remember, some countries don't like us for who we are and the liberty and freedom we have to offer and that will be a forever sticking pt not to go away.

B_gerrits
06-24-2008, 02:38 AM
You hit the nail on the head so what can we do about it?

mdvaden
06-24-2008, 05:03 AM
It just is not showing it's reccession face very much here near Portland.

House prices didn't drop much at all.

And I just moved to north Oregon by Portland's west side from south Oregon almost to the CA border about 6 weeks ago.

I'm not even advertising except for my website remaining online, and I'm booked solid for 2 weeks.

I made a normal month's income the past month.

My ad has yet to run in the local paper, and that ad will start showing up in about a week in 2 suburbs.

3 years ago I was here doing business, and things feel 2 times better than just before we left.

Maybe there is a recession, but my business habitat is not manifesting any evidence of it.

Hope that others find all the solutions they need for their local areas.

xpnd
06-24-2008, 10:54 AM
While Gary has taken a global approach and I agree, I would like to add my thoughts from a much smaller perspective.

Cassidy has valid points but his thinking, like many on this forum is flawed. He is looking at two different significant drivers of our economy in a vacuum. High fuel prices by and large do not create a recession. Slapping a customer with a $5.00 fuel surcharge will recapture your increased costs to do business due to fuel prices, it however does nothing to recapture your losses outside of the business. A slump in the housing industry by itself can not throw us into a recession either. Cassidy does not look at the entire 'economic organism' so to speak. Fuel is the food of our economy. Higher fuel prices transcends all other price structures. Here is a specific example that demonstrates what I am speaking too.

Eggs since last year have increased in price by nearly 70%. The direct result of this increase is the reduction of flock size by producers. The reason flock size was reduced was due to increased prices in feed caused by a diversion of corn into ethanol, increased fertilizer prices (urea) derived from fuel to grow feed, increased utility and transportation costs resulting from higher fuel prices. It's not about high fuel prices. It's about how high fuel prices are is driving all other sectors of our economy.

Consumers are now spending close to 60% of their income on what is considered the basic necessities of life as a result of that driver. That is the highest it has ever been and is expected to increase for the foreseeable future. Consumer spending is up however once the increased costs of energy and food is backed out of this figure, spending is flat to declining. That is not a healthy economic sign. Ford has delayed releasing and production of the new 2009 F-150 and GM is considering shuttering up to 5 plants. Current economic reports indicate that manufacturers have been resistant to increase shelf prices to reflect increased cost of the goods but that will begin to change this fall. Already certain groups, namely the cereal producers have been quietly downsizing volume without a price increase. This move has been netting them a 10% price increase.

According to Cassidy, we should ignore all these objective measurable signals, the economy is healthy and our problems will either miraculously disappear or worsen depending on who will take the 'big seat'. I don't buy it.

It won't matter who sits in the White House. When the largest contributor and pulse of this economy, consumer spending, slows down everything slows down. As consumers divert more and more $$$ into the necessities of life they become more and more cautious with what is remaining as they see the reality at the pump, the grocery store and utility bill. Purchases are reduced, delayed or eliminated. So long as the consumer sees and is negatively impacted on an daily and sometimes hourly basis to higher fuel prices, consumer spending will continue to decrease as a means of protection. Our current economic slowdown does not have its roots in rhetoric, who is sitting in the White House, gloom and doom forecasts or lack of faith. Our downturn is a reality. Start looking at your receipts to see it. Obviously Cassidy has not taken a recent trip to the grocery store.

Sean Adams
06-24-2008, 11:31 AM
Great post Gary and great information from everyone else too.... I honestly do not have to go much further than lawnsite.com to get an idea of what is truly going on in this country and this world we live in.

I have had the argument with quite a few people when it comes to the economy and who our next president should be and why, etc.... I always try and simplify things and probably to a fault.... I genuinely believe that we as consumers are as much as fault as anyone else - maybe it is my generation, but people spend money they do not have, they live far beyond their means, credit is no longer a privilege but an expectation and if all else fails, just buy an iPhone and and Wii and buy a house you know you cannot afford and drive a car that has payments you know you cannot justify....tomorrow is another day....

americanlawn
06-24-2008, 07:14 PM
Until Uncle Sam stops penalizing hard-working Americans, nothing will change. All kinds of taxes keep going up, but guess who pays them? Cost shifting is against the Constitution, but polititians do nothing about it. Our Founding Fathers are rolling in their graves.

At the Iowa Straw Poll last summer, nearly all candidates supported the Fair Tax. Problem is.......none of them were selected to run for President, and I certainly do not trust Osama or My Cane. They both suck.

2 things I truly don't understand: 1) "Let's NOT drill for our own oil", 2) "Yes, please RAISE my taxes". I think it's time Americans tell left-wingers where to go.

GPDesign1
06-25-2008, 10:21 AM
Really good article to put our current situation into perspective.

A couple of helpful facts to keep in mind before reading it:


U.S. government debt is rapidly approaching our total GDP (productive output). Current long-term obligations equal something on the order of 4-5 times GDP.

The Federal Reserve Bank is NOT a U.S. Federal agency. It is privately-owned by some of the wealthiest people in the world, many of whom are British and European interests. It operates in complete secrecy and allows no meaningful oversight by Congress. The Fed has never been audited since it's inception in 1913. It's a private bank.


Meet the new boss... same as the old boss

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13046

DA Quality Lawn & YS
06-25-2008, 04:04 PM
Good post Sean - I believe the consumer behavior you are describing below is the 'Law of Familiarity'. Basically, things lose value to people over time and thats when people start to get sloppy, like with credit, borrowing, spending, etc.


Great post Gary and great information from everyone else too.... I honestly do not have to go much further than lawnsite.com to get an idea of what is truly going on in this country and this world we live in.

I have had the argument with quite a few people when it comes to the economy and who our next president should be and why, etc.... I always try and simplify things and probably to a fault.... I genuinely believe that we as consumers are as much as fault as anyone else - maybe it is my generation, but people spend money they do not have, they live far beyond their means, credit is no longer a privilege but an expectation and if all else fails, just buy an iPhone and and Wii and buy a house you know you cannot afford and drive a car that has payments you know you cannot justify....tomorrow is another day....