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turf hokie
01-17-2009, 09:24 AM
Urea is up $75 per ton since December. Apparently this will be reflected in price increases that are going into effect at the end of the month. All my reps feel that we have seen the bottom of the fert market.

We have ordered some material, not all due to the unknowns with the economy more so than material pricing.


Spot market was up $10 yesterday.

I dont know but just thought I would share.

turfsolutions
01-17-2009, 11:54 AM
Was that before or after oil dropped another 10% this week? We are only at the beginning of a very long recession. Commodity prices won't be rising any time soon with the demand being so low. I am waiting to see how hard the lawn care market will be hit in 09 before being stuck with high priced fert. However, who really knows what the future holds??? Food production still needs to be met and fert might not be as recession succeptible as other commodities. Time will tell. Either way, overall operating costs will be lower than last year with gas and P being cheaper.

tremor
01-17-2009, 01:43 PM
Was that before or after oil dropped another 10% this week? We are only at the beginning of a very long recession. Commodity prices won't be rising any time soon with the demand being so low. I am waiting to see how hard the lawn care market will be hit in 09 before being stuck with high priced fert. However, who really knows what the future holds??? Food production still needs to be met and fert might not be as recession succeptible as other commodities. Time will tell. Either way, overall operating costs will be lower than last year with gas and P being cheaper.

Demand isn't low. Agriculture demand is already pushing fertilizer back up.
Farmers couldn't care less whether LCOs have customers or Golf Courses have members playing rounds. Hungry people still need to eat so farmers still plant, crops still grow & commodity fertilizers will flow.

Smallaxe
01-17-2009, 05:44 PM
Demand isn't low. Agriculture demand is already pushing fertilizer back up.
Farmers couldn't care less whether LCOs have customers or Golf Courses have members playing rounds. Hungry people still need to eat so farmers still plant, crops still grow & commodity fertilizers will flow.

If you are referring to the larger crop farmers of the Plains, you are probably close to correct on your assumption. However, the cumulation of smaller acreages all over the country has significant impact, as well. Not all of our food supply has become "hot house chicken" from 'high energy inputs.' :)

Around here we grow real chickens and real eggs. The high cost of fertilizer had a great effect on the amount used and to that extent - it had an effect on production and yeild. Admittedly , I do not have the stats - only the experience of the good folks in the field.

Chickens are not our big production enterprise, but used as an exa., for the workings of agriculture in this area. We do not buy extravagant amounts of fert when the prices are high. Lawn care LCOs spend more per acre than agriculture does for sure.

Suburbanites consume more npk/k than agriculture ever could in producing the alfalfa meal, corn meal and/or soybean meal.
A blanket ban on Phosphorus for peoples' lawns would reduce the cost considerably, if Supply and Demand dictated costs. IMO.

Of course, Supply and Demand had nothing to do with the $4.00/gal of gasoline, so the question remains -- Who decides what a ton of NPK is worth?

Again - Just a thought. :)

turfsolutions
01-17-2009, 07:33 PM
So true, supply and demand did have very little to do with $4 per gallon. Fortunately what went up fast, came down fast as well.

A few examples of less of a demand for fert might be: A lot less rounds of golf will be played in the coming future so courses will have to cut back on their budgets, including maximizing fert applications and even reducing fert aps. Schools may look to cut back on expenses with less government support during tough times so fertiilizing the fields might get put on the not needed this year list.

If fertilizer does remain a hot commodity then manufacturing of fertilizer will broaden thus increasing supply, and reducing demand and price. I am not saying that fert won't go up, but there are much greater things to be concerned about right now than a small percentage hike in fert costs which has always been the norm.

Time will tell.:usflag:

tlg
01-17-2009, 08:34 PM
Even if demand increases I don't believe that production will. The fertilizer market is being tightly controlled IMO. If manufacturers can produce less at a higher price they can and will. The way I see it is if the supply is left tight then fertilizer is going to the highest bidder. Didn't we see this last summer. Demand was high and supply was available at a high prices. Our suppliers can only make so much. At least that's what they say. It's the same thing with rock salt right now. Limited production, limited supply and high prices.

rcreech
01-17-2009, 10:44 PM
I think we have bottomed out...and it is up from here!

We will see!

I think it is hard to say with everything that is going on in this world...but my gut says the fun is over!

SpreadNSpray
01-17-2009, 11:28 PM
Ok, here is my bet. I think we are close to the low for this spring. Fertilizer (N) will go up during the early spring and then drop lower than it is right now in early summer and level off into early 2010. Much will depend on both the U.S. and world economy. P/K might hold tight with less movement.

rcreech
01-17-2009, 11:33 PM
Ok, here is my bet. I think we are close to the low for this spring. Fertilizer (N) will go up during the early spring and then drop lower than it is right now in early summer and level off into early 2010. Much will depend on both the U.S. and world economy. P/K might hold tight with less movement.

I would maybe agree with you on this!

But is the chance worth taking? :cry:

SpreadNSpray
01-17-2009, 11:41 PM
I would maybe agree with you on this!

But is the chance worth taking? :cry:

Not for me, I try to live in the now:laugh: I can only store 1 semi load on sight.
I might have to pull the trigger soon.

DA Quality Lawn & YS
01-17-2009, 11:44 PM
Was that before or after oil dropped another 10% this week? We are only at the beginning of a very long recession. Commodity prices won't be rising any time soon with the demand being so low. I am waiting to see how hard the lawn care market will be hit in 09 before being stuck with high priced fert. However, who really knows what the future holds??? Food production still needs to be met and fert might not be as recession succeptible as other commodities. Time will tell. Either way, overall operating costs will be lower than last year with gas and P being cheaper.

We are not at the beginning of a long recession. Its way over a year old. This is thinking in arears, and will get you beat every time. Also, not so sure fuel will be cheaper come this summer, we have seen our gas prices bounce from 1.40 to 1.90 with NO reason at all behind it. Wouldn't take too much to bounce it up past 3.00 again. I plan to budget 3.50-4.00 this next year.

turf hokie
01-18-2009, 02:52 PM
Most suppliers are willing to give a "cap" or price gurantee until the point you accept delivery. Which means as soon as you "lock" your price it wont go up but could come down.

So knowing this why would you not place an order ASAP at todays prices. The way I figure it the price can only go down for me and I have until the end of February to take delivery. So in reality we are only taking a chance on a price drop in 2-3 week window of storage time before we start using product after point of delivery.

I know you could always pick up as you need but at 1/2 hour plus travel time to get to the vendor I save an hour a day by stocking the fert in my place.

turfsolutions
01-18-2009, 11:04 PM
We are not at the beginning of a long recession. Its way over a year old. This is thinking in arears, and will get you beat every time. Also, not so sure fuel will be cheaper come this summer, we have seen our gas prices bounce from 1.40 to 1.90 with NO reason at all behind it. Wouldn't take too much to bounce it up past 3.00 again. I plan to budget 3.50-4.00 this next year.

The recession hit the install landscapers a bit this year in our area but the maintenance end did just fine. 2009 will most likely be a different story. I hope you are correct, but if you ask most financial experts, the concensus is that we will not come out of this until at least late 2010. The effects of such a collapse on wall street are just now being felt. Wait until state and local governments start reacting on a large scale. 40% of the countries retirement and pension funds just got wiped out, those that were invested in the market that is. It will take more than a year to fix that. People are going to be cutting back on their spending until the market gets back up to levels that will make people confident to spend. If the market goes up a stellar 10% per year, it will take 4 years just to reach where it was.

Maybe Obama can solve all our problems??????

mattfromNY
01-20-2009, 09:16 AM
Fuel prices going up for NO reason isnt so. Our local papers report that municipalities are missing out on mega tax dollars due to the low fuel prices. Therefore they are putting pressure on the gas stations to raise prices.
Two months ago, our local delegats were putting letters to the editor in the paper about how they were pressuring the Attorney General to look into the high prices. This week they are crying about lost tax dollars!
Crap to me, but thats how our lovely govt. runs things.

turfsolutions
01-20-2009, 09:52 AM
Fuel prices going up for NO reason isnt so. Our local papers report that municipalities are missing out on mega tax dollars due to the low fuel prices. Therefore they are putting pressure on the gas stations to raise prices.
Two months ago, our local delegats were putting letters to the editor in the paper about how they were pressuring the Attorney General to look into the high prices. This week they are crying about lost tax dollars!
Crap to me, but thats how our lovely govt. runs things.

Correct me if I am wrong but gasoline tax is a state tax, not local. In Pa. it is a set amount per gallon, not a percentage. So high prices or low prices, they get the same amount.

bflower
01-26-2009, 01:04 PM
Does anyone have a good site to watch urea/fertilizer futures and charts. im tired of relying on heresay and rumors. I have locked in a good percentage of this year, Just peace of mind. How could you send out renewal quotes and take prepays without knowing your input costs?

Josh.S
01-26-2009, 02:12 PM
Correct me if I am wrong but gasoline tax is a state tax, not local. In Pa. it is a set amount per gallon, not a percentage. So high prices or low prices, they get the same amount.

From my understand gas tax is part state and part federal. Right now I heard state tax is around .30 per gallon (avg) and federal is about .20 per gallon.

- Josh

nddcprojects
09-19-2009, 10:43 AM
I wish to inform you that the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), in South South geographical location of Nigeria, has received funds from the International Development Association (IDA) and Agency Francoise De Development(AFD) towards the cost of Community Based Rural Development Projects (CBRDP) and intends to apply part of this fund to cover eligible payments under the contracts for the
supply of the following items:

1. FUEL DISPENSING PUMP (500.00)UNITS
2. FERTILIZER..............(40,000 MT)
3. SOLAR STREET LAMP.........(5,000 000 Sets)
4. RICE..........(50,000 MT)

This Tender is open to all eligible foreign contractors from eligible source countries as defined in the guidelines of the procurement board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).

The contract payment terms is 70% upfront payment through bank T/T payable before production and supplying, and balance 30% by L/C at site while the delivery period is negotiable with the NDDC.

ksJoe
09-19-2009, 10:56 PM
I wish to inform you that the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), in South South geographical location of Nigeria, has received funds from the International Development Association (IDA) and Agency Francoise De Development(AFD) towards the cost of Community Based Rural Development Projects (CBRDP) and intends to apply part of this fund to cover eligible payments under the contracts for the
supply of the following items:

1. FUEL DISPENSING PUMP (500.00)UNITS
2. FERTILIZER..............(40,000 MT)
3. SOLAR STREET LAMP.........(5,000 000 Sets)
4. RICE..........(50,000 MT)

This Tender is open to all eligible foreign contractors from eligible source countries as defined in the guidelines of the procurement board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).

The contract payment terms is 70% upfront payment through bank T/T payable before production and supplying, and balance 30% by L/C at site while the delivery period is negotiable with the NDDC.

I thank you for your generous solicitation. Unfortunately, I don't have time right now to work on this. A few days ago I got an email from a Nigerian prince, who needs my assistance in transferring his inheritance. I'll be helping him, and using my bank accounts, and just for that he's giving 6%! As I'm sure you can understand, I need to spend my time helping him.

hughmcjr
09-19-2009, 11:14 PM
^^ all probably a direct result of the monetary shortfall of not showing DIstrict 9 in Nigeria since it has been banned.

ksJoe
09-19-2009, 11:17 PM
^^ all probably a direct result of the monetary shortfall of not showing DIstrict 9 in Nigeria since it has been banned.

No, its just another spin on the scams from Nigeria. Here is a pretty good write up of what he's up to:
http://www.snopes.com/crime/fraud/cnp.asp

ted putnam
09-20-2009, 12:51 AM
I wish to inform you that the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), in South South geographical location of Nigeria, has received funds from the International Development Association (IDA) and Agency Francoise De Development(AFD) towards the cost of Community Based Rural Development Projects (CBRDP) and intends to apply part of this fund to cover eligible payments under the contracts for the
supply of the following items:

1. FUEL DISPENSING PUMP (500.00)UNITS
2. FERTILIZER..............(40,000 MT)
3. SOLAR STREET LAMP.........(5,000 000 Sets)
4. RICE..........(50,000 MT)

This Tender is open to all eligible foreign contractors from eligible source countries as defined in the guidelines of the procurement board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).

The contract payment terms is 70% upfront payment through bank T/T payable before production and supplying, and balance 30% by L/C at site while the delivery period is negotiable with the NDDC.

WOW! From what I just read in that article, the list you posted is a nice little chunk of change on the black market...

Pythium
09-21-2009, 12:18 PM
Our irrigation division got an order for an orphanage for 500 sprinkler heads, pipe etc from a "minister Brian Moore" in Minnesota. This scam works by using their shipping company, they pay for the goods to ship (with a stolen credit card) and they get the money that their shipping co was paid. you get stuck with product. We did fortunately realize this was a scam, but the first e-mail was real legit sounding, the second one came with a lot of misspellings and that Nigeria scam linguistics to it. That set off the alarm bells.

Tyler7692
09-21-2009, 12:58 PM
Commodity prices will soar, only because of the ever falling value of the worthless US dollar.