Future of the maintenance industry?

[NewbieOwner]

Hey folks,

Was having a really interesting discussion with the father in law today. Thought I'd pose the question here...

How much longer are "we" (the professional lawn maintenance industry - more aimed at the mowing side) going to be around for?

What we were discussing, was with the advent, and improvements in many technologies, GPS, Perimiter fencing. And the autonimous vehicles (auto-driving cars etc) How long will it be until someone comes out with a GOOD autonimous mowing system?

Sure we've already got that damn lawn roach thing (that solar powered wanna-be mower) There is one in our town (I've seen its work, pretty pathetic) But what happens when the second, third and fourth generations of autonimous mowers come out?

How long do we have until eXmark, Lawnboy, Toro etc start using some of the new technologies and adapt them to the lawn care industry?

How will we compete? Sure the first few generations won't be 'real' competition (except for the penny pincher customers) But once they start having the ability to stripe, trim etc? What then? I doubt I could mow or trim in a straighter line than a GPS navigated mower/trimmer, Could you?

Just wanted to see what you guys had to say, it was an interesting discussion to me (made me ponder how my old Radio control airplane equipment could be connected to the exmark (mow from airconditioned comfort...:D)

Andrew

[JimLewis]

I've thought about that a few times too. But I basically came to the conclusion that unless they invent a REALLY CHEAP robot that can Mow, edge, fertilize, spray weeds in the lawn, pull weeds in the flowerbeds, rake leaves, apply insecticides, adjust sprinklers, blow off the driveways, haul away yard debris, prune shrubs, apply new mulch, aerate, etc. than I think I am pretty safe.

Most of my customers don't want to lift a finger when it comes to landscaping. It's a lot more than just mowing. I think what we do is difficult to replace.

[Richard Martin]

It could be awhile before GPS is accurate enough to cut a lawn. Right now the most accuracy you can get is around 3 meters and that would put your mower into the flower beds or the next door neighbor's yard. Stripes would be out of the question at that kind of resolution also.

The military controls the degree of accuracy that GPS can give and during times of national crisis it is reduced to around 10 meters for public use.

Rest easy, your craft will still be needed for many years to come.

[yergus]

I serious doubt that any machine could ever give the personalized services that we offer. And if they ever came up with them, i am sure i wouldn't be getting Bill Gates account anyway, after all, he would be the only one that could afford one.

[BigJim]

Don't lose any sleep on it,lawn guys will be around long after your mowing days are finished.:dizzy:

[Tony Harrell]

I thought about that over the winter. I stopped by a RC shop and they gave me all the info I needed. But there's a problem, you'll need your own unique frequency or else the neighbors kid could take over control of your Z. I even thought past the problems and envisioned a trailer loaded with preprogrammed mowers (using GPS) that just get dropped off. I saw a picture of some Japanese guy controlling a Z on a hillside by remote control. It's fun to dream about stuff. That's where a lot of inventions come from. Heck, I had an idea years ago when Timex was making computers and GPS was being installed to have a module for street maps. It's a reality today. I think it's called Onstar.

[Doc Pete]

Originally posted by NewbieOwner
Hey folks,


Just wanted to see what you guys had to say, it was an interesting discussion to me (made me ponder how my old Radio control airplane equipment could be connected to the exmark (mow from airconditioned comfort...:D)

Andrew

Andrew,
Making an R/C mower is really no problem. On a Hydro it's really very simple. Also, using onboard "fail/safe" and redundant systems you will help get around insurance problems. If I had long wider mows like a see in some pictures I'd build one to use. Also, with today's cheap "helicopter" "Heading hold" gyros, which are terrific, you could make really straight lines without any operator input.
R/C mowers would greatly reduce operator fatigue, but only for some lawns. IMO, it "is" the wave of the future for a very limited amount of lawns. However, in my opinion, you will/must always have an operator present and because of changing landscapes, you will never go to a fully automated mower than will remember each lawn, plus the insurance companies would not allow it.
Last, as with your plane and my helicopter, it "will" a take a fair amount of talent for the operator to control the mower from one location, (eye hand coordination) and this may be the limiting factor in making it a reality, or making it a real "well paying" skill. However, for guy's like you and me that already have 20 years of R/C under our belt, we may find out selves in the drivers seat:p (pardon the pun). Oh, if you want to know how to convert a Hydro over the R/C let me know.
Pete

[Brickman]

I have little worry about this sort of thing. Like was meantioned before most customers are wanting that personal touch that only we can give. And that lawn care will still be around when most of us no longer have a desire to do it. There are still tons of people in this country that don't want a computer. And how common are those?

[MOW ED]

There are always some jobs that a machine cant do alone. Anything can be done but it always cant be done faster, cheaper, or on the other hand Better than a person doing the job.

I have zero worries about the industry going "automatic" I do see the greater use of PGR's and chemicals to slow the growth but nothing that is going to replace you or I.

[JimLewis]

I worry more about them inventing a type of turfgrass that doesn't allow weeds, grows incredibly slow, always stays green, is incredibly wear resistant and is resistant to insects and disease. Once that becomes real popular, we have a little something to worry about.

People would still need us for mowing, just not as often. That would suck.

Of course, the first few years, there would be major profit in installing such turf.

[ceaman]

I have seen GPS for public use called "triple correcting" that gets within 11 Inches. Military use a GPS system called "differential carrier phase surveys" with 1 mm to 1 cm accuracy. Selective Availability (SA) is an intentional degradation of the signal once imposed by the U.S. Department of Defense. SA was intended to prevent military adversaries from using the highly accurate GPS signals. The government turned off SA in May 2000, which significantly improved the accuracy of civilian GPS receivers.

[awm]

the future of lawn care operators ,will in my opinion,be affected much more by
everyday people loosing everyday jobs to cheap foreign labor. now we gonna pay the premium price for those cheap imports.jmo, and i wish i were w rong but
i dont believe so.

[SIG]

OSHA!!!

[strickdad]

Originally posted by awm
the future of lawn care operators ,will in my opinion,be affected much more by
everyday people loosing everyday jobs to cheap foreign labor. now we gonna pay the premium price for those cheap imports.jmo, and i wish i were w rong but
i dont believe so. aaaahhhh once again "awm" has hit the "nail on the head"

[yardboyltd]

I say 60 years to produce a sound system. 25 years for it catch-on in some cites. Probably another 25 for it to settle in, which I think it will never catch on everywhere... With'n that time laser cutting technology will be have been perfected. Also nanotechnology will allow us to make microscopic bugs that could in concept could eat the grass exactly 3" up or whatever... not sure how it would look. I'm sure the customer's perceptcion off a prestigous lawn will change alot by that time also, so who can really tell without putting an extreme amount of time trying to predict the future...

[proline32]

I have to agree that "cheap foreign Labor" is a real concern down the road, cheap foreign labor has already made it impossible for many in the trucking industry in the southwest US. I was looking into relocating to an area of coastal oregon, but found it clogged with mexican labor working at low rates, and it is getting worse here. Also, the proliferation of Under the table operations are a real concern and many of them are foreign, Many LCO's will be pressured from both sides, on one side you have Large multi corporations like home depot, scotts, and truegreen slowly eating into the market share, and on the other side the under the table guys....... I recently read an article where the CEO of the SCOTTS company was talking about the expansion of the lawn maintenance business as an avenue for growth for thier company and that they are currently doing 40 million a year in that area, they already have 55% of the fertilizer market. These guys just can't be satisfied with just selling the fertilizers, they have to apply it as well. Eliminating you or me from doing it.

[sirsweatsalot]

im more worried about the parents unpluging there fat kids playstation and makeing them cut the grass insted of i am of robo cop pushing a mower.

[wolfpacklawn]

We all must be looking to diversify our sorces of income. I know that I hope to have other business ventures and investments that have nothing to do with the lawn care industry. I see my lawn business as a platform to get me into these other sorces of income.

I also feel that most of us who own a SUCCESSFUL lawn business could move into many other service type business and take what we have learned about running a lawn service and apply those experiences to another type of service business.

[Kent Lawns]

We'll all be long gone before this industry is.

[JasperStorm]

I picture my crew of genetically engineered zombie-slaves; humans with orangutan arms for better pruning reach, remote control computer chip implants regulating brain activities such as release of adrenaline and endorphins, so I can make them crave hard, gruelling , and completely unpaid work as the crack/meth user craves his next hit.

All as I sit in a lawn chair with my remote control, cracking open another beer.

[awm]

i wish what i said was in the future,
but im afraid its here now.
we are just now seeing the front edge of the storm.deversify,save, buy a milk cow and pigs . cause i really feel like lower middle income ,to lower income america
will be the ones who take the brunt of it.
ways to be ready are specialty skills ,
and other education.
really dont mean to sound so ominus,
cause weve had it good a long time.
its just that the world has gotten so small that those poor needy u see on tv ,in impoverished countries. well they gettin a piece o the pie now. which may mean a smaller piece for u an me.
:) yaw have a great day cause everything said an done,its great to be alive. surmon over.:D

[wolfpacklawn]

Awn said-

" its just that the world has gotten so small that those poor needy u see on tv ,in impoverished countries. well they gettin a piece o the pie now. which may mean a smaller piece for u an me. "

The worlds economy is growing and dynamic. Just becasue one person is getting a piece of the pie now doesn't mean that someone else must be getting theirs taken away.

Look at our industry- how often do you get new accounts that have never used a lawn service before? I get them all the time, nobodys piece of the pie got smaller because I got that account. Even when I do get an account that has had previous lawn service doesn't necessarily mean that the company that had previously been serving them has now had their piece taken away. That company may be moving more into the landscaping end of things or in a completely different direction and may be looking to get rid of lawn accounts.

The future is as bright as you want to make it. I still believe that and no one is going to stop me from reaching my goals.

[Albemarle Lawn]

That is according to a 1990 survey.

It is more than that now...think about it...grass is created every day and seldom removed. We're probably at 35 Million acres by now.

We're safe for a while. Just make lots of money and invest it into OTHER businesses too, avoid excessive "plowback" into your business exclusively.

Real estate is good for guys like us not afraid to turn a screwdriver.

KB

[awm]

wolfpack,im all for ya. u are right ,in that those who wont quit or be beaten ,
can never be beaten . at least while their tickers ticking.good luck to u.

[MATTHEW]

The future? A growing trend. Mexicans and retirees.

[Doc Pete]

Originally posted by MATTHEW
The future? A growing trend. Mexicans and retirees.

Non- English speaking workers will be forced to continue to work for "us", until they learn English. And, as far as I can see, they aren't very interested in doing that. However, there are a few, and you can see the difference. The hard worker's have two jobs, just like many of us part-timers do and those will be the ones that will end up as Forman’s, and get their own rig, down the road.
Pete

[JasperStorm]

"Someday the system is going to fail"- Burt Reynolds in "Deliverence".

The people who need to worry most about any real or perceived dark clouds on the horizon are those of marginal intelligence, discipline, and foresight. The rest of us can adapt, or stay ahead of the rising tide. (this is not aimed at any of you - don't take offense.)

Some things to think about are:

1. Staying out of debt, with the exception of a mortgage, and paying that off as soon as possible.

2. Moving to, if possible, rural or semi-rural areas, where one can afford some acreage (it's nice to have your own compost/brush pile, instead of paying $15+ per yard to dump). You can grow your own food "should something bad happen to the food supply."

3. Work hard while your body can take it, and always realize that your body depreciates. Someday you might be crippled and require another source of income (always think in worst case scenarios, with a minimum 10 year horizon- many in this business can't see past next month). Don't cry to the government-you had plenty of time to prepare yourself.

4. Always be adding some skill that will come in handy "someday" to your repetroire. Most of us already can "hack it" better than most our customers/employers, should any "stuff hit the fan".

5. Being prepared doesn't mean we have to dwell on the negative, take a walk through an old cemetary, read the tombstones, and you'll see within five minutes that even the most miserable of us have it easy compared to our ancestors.


Sell your T.V., read more, and as they say, "shoot more, shoot more often."

[TMlawncare]

I'm a little concerned also. Look at the advancements being made with growth regulators. Once they perfect these we will be mowing about 4 times a year and trimming bushes, hedges, etc only once a year. Also for bed maintenance look at whats came out in the past couple years......PREEN in a few more years super PREEN, then basically no bed maintenance.

[Brickman]

A common twist on the non english speakers. ONE of them will learn enough to get by, and be the owner of the biz. The rest will work for him, knowing very little english. And so the whole crew works for pennies on the dollar. And the rest of us are stuck with those prices.

Employees expect and some times deserve a raise. But what about the poor SOB that owns the biz. Where is his raise? Only if he can raise prices from the customers. Providing they allow him to.

[Doc Pete]

Originally posted by Brickman Lawn Care
A common twist on the non english speakers. ONE of them will learn enough to get by, and be the owner of the biz. The rest will work for him, knowing very little english. And so the whole crew works for pennies on the dollar. And the rest of us are stuck with those prices.

Employees expect and some times deserve a raise. But what about the poor SOB that owns the biz. Where is his raise? Only if he can raise prices from the customers. Providing they allow him to.

Hey now;) I thought buying those super fast, new fandangled riders that cut your mowing time in half, but "still charge the customer the same rate", was your raise:p You devil you, you're just playing with us. :D

As far as the "Common twist", with New Jersey "asking" us to call them even if you "suspect" a company is running without Worker's Comp Insurance, I don't think we'll have to worry about cheap help. Furthermore, in NJ, even with a "Red Blooded American" talking and getting the homeowners contract, these guy's still send the "no speako english" workers to do the work......The good part is, "this" is these guy's downfall. My customers got tired of saying, "Please don't cut the Myrtle, it isn't not grass";)
Pete