Where is Google headed in the next 10 years?

[mdvaden]

Lately I've been brainstorming where Google may be heading in the next 10 years.

Now one change lately I don't care for, is searching for like "Dallas Landscape Service" ... and those thumbnail images appear. As a strict PC user browsing, I'd prefer not to see the clutter.

But this got me thinking about business headings.

I have a feeling that Google may try to take over the business directory angle in the future. For starters, say you look up "Seattle Tree Service". Tree Service was a standard Yellow Pages heading. And so you see the local listing info box and some companies. But search "Seattle Arborist" and its different. No info box or map. And Arborist was never a Yellow Page heading either.

Apparently, the local listing thing is patterned after traditional Yellow Page headings.

And it would be no surprise if what are FREE listings now, become paid listings in the future.

Lately, I noticed that the Superpages, Dexknows and Service Magic have all tumbled. And although there might be a fee, I'd almost prefer to see a bunch of fragmented directories be replaced with a better one.

Remember when it used to be free to register a site with the Yahoo directory? Then later they started to charge like $299? I'm curious whether Google will be headed that same direction. Not neccessarily that expensive, but to the end that any company can pay a small fee to be included in a fairly complete online directory that's in alphabetical order (provided to searchers along with the regular search results by clicking a box to open).

Because Google is almost headed that way right now anyway, with the local listings.

[TheGoat]

the thing about directories is that they are only as good as the depth of their data.

that listing charge yahoo implemented is the reason why they now play 2nd fiddle to google in terms of where people go to look something up on the net.

This reason is also why the best targeted directories (ezlocal, merchantcircle, and others) are all free with an option to pay for "extras."

I noticed today that google is going to begin offering a highlighted tag to business listings in GooglePlaces for $25 a month.

Free is the new price point when it comes to online content. News papers are failing because they cannot grasp that eyes on webpages = ad dollars, so they continue to try and charge for access the their online content.

[mdvaden]

Unfortunately nothing useful functions for free. When people pay nothing for something, that's about all they get. Garbage. Even Google's search results are sloppy if we are honest about it. For example, take Wikipedia.

There are reams of articles from Wikipedia that Google lists first. Try searching this ...

"Redwood Hyperion"

Wiki is first. Merely because Google automatically gives it weight. That's a sign of weakness right there. Because the following page or two have 4 times more information on that redwood.

This is Google's Achille's heel of not being able to personally look at each website. They basically write codes to bandage their blindness. A lot of their results are good. But fluctuate dramatically like a yo-yo from month to month. Still pitiful in a way. Then, that Merchant Circle is still greatly incomplete.

And that's exactly the gap I see needing fulfillment. Yahoo's probably was not charging money. It's how MUCH they charged, and the incompleteness of their directory.

I still see the possibility of a niche for a first-class directory at a moderate cost. In the same way that registering a domain name or buying entry-level web hosting is moderate and affordable.

If it could be pulled-off, odds are Google would stand a chance. Mainly because they are accumulating a far greater scale and scope of business date right now as it is. Yahoo was nowhere close to where Google Places is right now, especially with the street views available these days. If this system keeps growing to where its virtually indespensible, who would say "no" to Google if all of a sudden they started to charge.

And they are starting basically. Like with that highlight you mentioned. Basically they are just leading everybody toward that paid path by blocking the most obvious display of sites that don't pay. Like they do with Google Adwords. Those who don't pay for Adwords don't get to be at the top of the page. Because that's where Adwords ads happen to go.

[mdvaden]

One more point to tie some theories together ...

It seems like a major change online for listings, whether paid or not, may hinge on a potential huge collapse of printed yellow pages, and online yellow books getting docked.

The latter seems to be happening gradually the past 6 months for some business headings in the SERPS

[Joe Shooner]

It would be darkly humorous if google looked at all the money businesses spend on SEO (much of which is truly guess/check, guess/hope work on the part of the SEO provider) and decided they would just as soon have all that money. Realize that if google really wanted to, they could cripple the SEO industry in short order by offering paid business listings on a larger scale than they do now. I don't think that's really in their best interest, though.

[mdvaden]

It would be darkly humorous if google looked at all the money businesses spend on SEO (much of which is truly guess/check, guess/hope work on the part of the SEO provider) and decided they would just as soon have all that money. Realize that if google really wanted to, they could cripple the SEO industry in short order by offering paid business listings on a larger scale than they do now. I don't think that's really in their best interest, though.


Agreed that they don't do stuff like that in short order.

But its evident that they are willing to combat competitors like Yahoo or Bing. So I think they could slowly cripple yellow page companies. And a lot of us may even be cheering them on for doing it.

Because I don't see Google making things they work on less efficient.