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View Full Version : Fert Prices: Decided not to buy fertilizer early


lawnlandscape
12-07-2010, 03:43 PM
With all the hype about fertilizer prices going through the roof I was strongly considering ordering everything I would need for 2011 in now. In previous years we would order the amount we needed right before each application.

After spending the past 2 days researching the corn futures, analyzing the market, and speaking to different suppliers I have decided NOT to buy my fertilizers early. Don't quote me on this, because I am not an expert at all, but based on my own personal research, I would expect the price of corn to remain about the same as it is now until spring.

My supplier did tell me that if I did want to buy now, he would write terms so the payment would not be due until May 15th 2011. But, corn is higher then it normally is already, and will be kicking myself if it goes down and I had to store it all winter and also pay more.

If it goes up another 10%, I will reconsider ordering early, but I just don't see it going up $2-$3 a bag by spring.

What does everyone else honestly think?

rcreech
12-07-2010, 10:09 PM
With all the hype about fertilizer prices going through the roof I was strongly considering ordering everything I would need for 2011 in now. In previous years we would order the amount we needed right before each application.

After spending the past 2 days researching the corn futures, analyzing the market, and speaking to different suppliers I have decided NOT to buy my fertilizers early. Don't quote me on this, because I am not an expert at all, but based on my own personal research, I would expect the price of corn to remain about the same as it is now until spring.

My supplier did tell me that if I did want to buy now, he would write terms so the payment would not be due until May 15th 2011. But, corn is higher then it normally is already, and will be kicking myself if it goes down and I had to store it all winter and also pay more.

If it goes up another 10%, I will reconsider ordering early, but I just don't see it going up $2-$3 a bag by spring.

What does everyone else honestly think?

lawnlandscape,

Here we go....I promise I will be nice! :)

You can research corn futures all you want and you won't learn a thing. We are in uncharted waters right now and nobody can predict the market. This summer they were calling for $2.80 corn...and low and behold we had a short crop and it is now $5.60. They are saying possible $7 corn this spring.

The other player in the market is the funds. Grain markets used to be controlled by weather and usage...and not it is controlled by the funds markets and they will ride the market up and then cash out. That is why there is so much volatility in the market now.

Five years ago it would move a nickel of dime a day...and now it will move $.50 in 10 minutes.

Nobody knows so I wouldn't delay my fert purchase due to your research.

I have farmed my whole life and I am so confused right now. I sold most of my corn for $4 and thought I was living high on the hog!



1) Fertilizer market almost as strong right now as it has ever been
2) Predictions are fert will continue to increase
3) Yes corn is a MAJOR player...outside the US is also a MAJOR player
4) Corn crop was short this year (big reason for large increase in market price)
5) We will not have another corn harvest until Oct of 2011 (means corn price will stay high until atleast June if not later)
6) We import a lot of fertilizer and they are not sending it to us

Fertilizer suppliers can not even get 0-0-60 right now. They literally can't even buy it!

You can do what you want...but I wouldn't base it on the FUTURES market.
Here are the facts: This country is short on corn and prices will go up and down from here on out, but they will not drop much unless demand drops.

The demand for corn right now is through the roof.

Hope that helps!

RC

Shegardi
12-07-2010, 10:26 PM
http://www.fertilizerworks.com/html/market/BasketPrice.pdf

fl-landscapes
12-07-2010, 10:30 PM
lawnlandscape,

Here we go....I promise I will be nice! :)

You can research corn futures all you want and you won't learn a thing. We are in uncharted waters right now and nobody can predict the market. This summer they were calling for $2.80 corn...and low and behold we had a short crop and it is now $5.60. They are saying possible $7 corn this spring.

The other player in the market is the funds. Grain markets used to be controlled by weather and usage...and not it is controlled by the funds markets and they will ride the market up and then cash out. That is why there is so much volatility in the market now.

Five years ago it would move a nickel of dime a day...and now it will move $.50 in 10 minutes.

Nobody knows so I wouldn't delay my fert purchase due to your research.

I have farmed my whole life and I am so confused right now. I sold most of my corn for $4 and thought I was living high on the hog!



1) Fertilizer market almost as strong right now as it has ever been
2) Predictions are fert will continue to increase
3) Yes corn is a MAJOR player...outside the US is also a MAJOR player
4) Corn crop was short this year (big reason for large increase in market price)
5) We will not have another corn harvest until Oct of 2011 (means corn price will stay high until atleast June if not later)
6) We import a lot of fertilizer and they are not sending it to us

Fertilizer suppliers can not even get 0-0-60 right now. They literally can't even buy it!

You can do what you want...but I wouldn't base it on the FUTURES market.
Here are the facts: This country is short on corn and prices will go up and down from here on out, but they will not drop much unless demand drops.

The demand for corn right now is through the roof.

Hope that helps!

RC

I was wondering if you would take the bait.....when I read the title and who it was from I thought to myself the thread tiltle should be "hey rceech I disagree with what you did regarding pre-purchase of ferts...now lets argue for another two days":laugh::laugh:

rcreech
12-07-2010, 11:19 PM
I was wondering if you would take the bait.....when I read the title and who it was from I thought to myself the thread tiltle should be "hey rceech I disagree with what you did regarding pre-purchase of ferts...now lets argue for another two days":laugh::laugh:

LOL

I didn't take it that way.

Maybe I am wrong...but I don't think he is trying to start anything.

I just think he is using the wrong model to make his decision. Looking at corn futures doesn't mean a thing. It is all about supply and demand of both commodity crops AND fertilizer.

If I knew what the grain market (or anyone for that matter) was going to do in 6 months I would be sitting on a beach right now smoking a cigar.

Looking at the shortage on corn, other countries now eating meat and not being able to get fert like we used to...the writing is on the wall IMO!

RABBITMAN11
12-07-2010, 11:31 PM
Im glad i have mine tied up.
Posted via Mobile Device

jasontimm
12-07-2010, 11:35 PM
LOL

I didn't take it that way.

Maybe I am wrong...but I don't think he is trying to start anything.

I just think he is using the wrong model to make his decision. Looking at corn futures doesn't mean a thing. It is all about supply and demand of both commodity crops AND fertilizer.

If I knew what the grain market (or anyone for that matter) was going to do in 6 months I would be sitting on a beach right now smoking a cigar.

Looking at the shortage on corn, other countries now eating meat and not being able to get fert like we used to...the writing is on the wall IMO!

Ya, regardless, history shows that input costs always skyrocket the following year after high market prices on crops, fact being fert prices now are guaranteed to be lower than in a couple of weeks, and even 6 months from now, its just how it is.

lawnlandscape
12-07-2010, 11:53 PM
lawnlandscape,

Here we go....I promise I will be nice! :)

You can research corn futures all you want and you won't learn a thing. We are in uncharted waters right now and nobody can predict the market. This summer they were calling for $2.80 corn...and low and behold we had a short crop and it is now $5.60. They are saying possible $7 corn this spring.

The other player in the market is the funds. Grain markets used to be controlled by weather and usage...and not it is controlled by the funds markets and they will ride the market up and then cash out. That is why there is so much volatility in the market now.

Five years ago it would move a nickel of dime a day...and now it will move $.50 in 10 minutes.

Nobody knows so I wouldn't delay my fert purchase due to your research.

I have farmed my whole life and I am so confused right now. I sold most of my corn for $4 and thought I was living high on the hog!



1) Fertilizer market almost as strong right now as it has ever been
2) Predictions are fert will continue to increase
3) Yes corn is a MAJOR player...outside the US is also a MAJOR player
4) Corn crop was short this year (big reason for large increase in market price)
5) We will not have another corn harvest until Oct of 2011 (means corn price will stay high until atleast June if not later)
6) We import a lot of fertilizer and they are not sending it to us

Fertilizer suppliers can not even get 0-0-60 right now. They literally can't even buy it!

You can do what you want...but I wouldn't base it on the FUTURES market.
Here are the facts: This country is short on corn and prices will go up and down from here on out, but they will not drop much unless demand drops.

The demand for corn right now is through the roof.

Hope that helps!

RC

Thanks for the in-site. That was all very good. Now you got me thinking again... I read somewhere that the government just made it so gas will not have 15% ethanol instead of 10% as well. Do you know anything about that? Including if its true or not?

lawnlandscape
12-07-2010, 11:53 PM
I was wondering if you would take the bait.....when I read the title and who it was from I thought to myself the thread tiltle should be "hey rceech I disagree with what you did regarding pre-purchase of ferts...now lets argue for another two days":laugh::laugh:

seriously.... grow up..

lawnlandscape
12-08-2010, 12:00 AM
LOL

I just think he is using the wrong model to make his decision. Looking at corn futures doesn't mean a thing. It is all about supply and demand of both commodity crops AND fertilizer.

If I knew what the grain market (or anyone for that matter) was going to do in 6 months I would be sitting on a beach right now smoking a cigar.

Looking at the shortage on corn, other countries now eating meat and not being able to get fert like we used to...the writing is on the wall IMO!

If you had a crystal ball snowing fert prices over the next year, what do you think is going to happen to a $15 (which is where its at for me today) bag of 20-0-04 over the next year?

You may not want to answer this... but for the record... I'm not going to hold you to it, if you did want to predict something. :)

You are clearly a lot more educated in this regard then I am.

rcreech
12-08-2010, 07:52 AM
Ya, regardless, history shows that input costs always skyrocket the following year after high market prices on crops, fact being fert prices now are guaranteed to be lower than in a couple of weeks, and even 6 months from now, its just how it is.

Exactly!

This is just a repeat of 08 but maybe not or bad..or will it be worse???

rcreech
12-08-2010, 07:58 AM
If you had a crystal ball snowing fert prices over the next year, what do you think is going to happen to a $15 (which is where its at for me today) bag of 20-0-04 over the next year?

You may not want to answer this... but for the record... I'm not going to hold you to it, if you did want to predict something. :)

You are clearly a lot more educated in this regard then I am.

I wish I had a crystal ball.

Making buying and selling decisions are based on several things.
1) Gut
2) Market
3) Finances/Profit

If you feel in your GUT and the MARKET is going to go up and your FINANCES can afford it...I would lock in your PROFIT!

Every fert market is different, but our supply is all the same and increases should occur "evenly" UNLESS someone hedged the market and bought ahead (which is really what we are doing).

I would highly recommend buying ahead as what I am seeing and hearing is not good.
Not sure about N, but I think P and K we will see some shortages.

Good ol supply and demand!

I don't have a clue to tell you where the corn market is gonig...but I think it is safe so say that today corn will stay about $5 and less then $7.

If something changes...it may be $3 to $5.

So much is determined by the NEWS and OUTSIDE sources.

As far as Ethanol being increased...I have not heard anything, but that would be great! I still have a little corn to sell yet! :)

fl-landscapes
12-08-2010, 09:19 AM
Thanks for the in-site. That was all very good. Now you got me thinking again... I read somewhere that the government just made it so gas will not have 15% ethanol instead of 10% as well. Do you know anything about that? Including if its true or not?

ok Ill grow up...with that said I have a new thread title " hey guys I got another question, just like my other thread about changing my program. I can never make a decidion myself so I am going to go back and forth with myself and you and change my mind twenty times, and in the end ignore all your thoughts...should be fun"

lawnlandscape
12-08-2010, 10:05 AM
ok Ill grow up...with that said I have a new thread title " hey guys I got another question, just like my other thread about changing my program. I can never make a decidion myself so I am going to go back and forth with myself and you and change my mind twenty times, and in the end ignore all your thoughts...should be fun"

Why even make a post if your going to post like that?

There is a lot of hype about fert prices. Its something my local competitors and I are talking about on a daily basis. Therefore, this thread will help many others on this site as well.

SERIOUSLY... grow up.. or at least go find someone else to land on.

rcreech
12-08-2010, 05:38 PM
This is just a thought...but if you are unsure of the market but don't want to make a large commitment, what about buying say 30-50%.

Or buy as much as you can afford or what you know you will need for a round of two.

Dunno...but I think we are going to be on a wild ride soon.
Gas and Diesel is starting to soar here also.

That is another indicator IMO!

americanlawn
12-08-2010, 07:12 PM
1) That "grow up crap" is uncalled for. Heck - I'm 56, and I still ain't grown up. :laugh::laugh:

2) I like to stay in touch with rcreech cuz he always seems to find the best deals on fert prices. Plus, he's also a farmer.... Ever notice the round yellow sticker on top of Iowa HAWKEYE football helmets? ....... ANF (America Needs Farmers) :usflag:

3) We ordered our spring supply of pre/fert last week. (rcreech knows what we paid). We chose a .375 Barricade product from Agrium. It is made in Eau Claire, WI by EC Grow and features XCU slow release fert.

4) Our two most-used fert suppliers both said that fert prices would increase by the end of THIS week. Both also indicated that fert prices could drop next year at the end of the Midwest planting season (late spring), but you never know.

my 2 cents

hotwater
12-08-2010, 08:45 PM
Who says you can't predict the grain markets?

rcreech
12-08-2010, 08:55 PM
Who says you can't predict the grain markets?

Are you serious?

hotwater
12-08-2010, 10:03 PM
Very Serious, and those who can't do it can be very successful trading volatile markets short term (day trading). You have a 50% chance of the market going your way, the problem is that most don't have money for the margin associated with the more volatile markets.

rcreech
12-08-2010, 10:10 PM
Very Serious, and those who can't do it can be very successful trading volatile markets short term (day trading). You have a 50% chance of the market going your way, the problem is that most don't have money for the margin associated with the more volatile markets.

Uhhhhh yeaaaaahhhhhh!

Playing the grain markets is just gambling!

Yes you can gamble the market...but you can not PREDICT THE MARKET!




You said "Who says you can't predict the grain markets?"

Nobody can!

If you could predict the grain markets you would be making MILLIONS and wouldn't be on lawnsite! :)

rcreech
12-08-2010, 10:14 PM
I listened to a marketing guy from his company a couple years ago (market grain for a living) and he worked on the trading floor for 30 years and he said they can only hit the market like 60% of the time. That sounds good but it isn't...because people are paying them big money to make decisions.


The guy that was giving the talk said laughingly..."if I was really a good marketer...I would be on a beach right now, and not in a hotel talking to you guys"

I know the on these highs...they totally miss it because they are looking at fundamentals and history.

Well that doesn't mean anything in this day and age...so they are just guessing like the rest of us!


You have a 50% chance of GUESSING the market...but that is far from predicting the market.


Grain marketing just as most isn't about the high and low...it is all about the avg. It isn't about a day...it is about months.

Not sure if this makes sense to you...but long story short...you are wrong!

jasontimm
12-08-2010, 10:24 PM
I listened to a marketing guy from his company a couple years ago (market grain for a living) and he worked on the trading floor for 30 years and he said they can only hit the market 60% of the time.

The guy that was giving the talk said laughingly..."if I was really a good marketer...I would be on a beach right now, and not in a hotel talking to you guys"


You have a 50% chance of GUESSING the market...but that is far from predicting the market.


Grain marketing just as most isn't about the high and low...it is all about the avg. It isn't about a day...it is about months.

Not sure if this makes sense to you...but long story short...you are wrong!

Couldnt be anymore correst RC, I've been in the AG life bout the same time as you, if it was predicable, i sure the hell wouldnt be sitting in sub zero weather right now looking at my pallets of FERTILIZER I BOUGHT AND HAD DELIVERED LAST WEEK. instead i'd be in Texas sitting on a beach wondering if lawnlandscapes made his mind up yet.

hotwater
12-08-2010, 10:40 PM
I can predict the market, and was doing it before greed took over. Got caught in too many markets I knew nothing about. When the s*&^ hit the fan I took a ride the wrong way ignoring what got me where I was and got my a%^ handed to me. I broke a major trading rule! I really shouldn't have responded, because to prove this I would have to let you understand how i did it.

rcreech
12-08-2010, 10:43 PM
I can predict the market, and was doing it before greed took over. Got caught in too many markets I knew nothing about. When the s*&^ hit the fan I took a ride the wrong way ignoring what got me where I was and got my a%^ handed to me. I broke a major trading rule! I really shouldn't have responded, because to prove this I would have to let you understand how i did it.

You don't need to prove anything to me!

Yes you may make some good moves...but then you will get caught with your pants down!

Point is...YOU CAN NOT PREDICT THE MARKET!

You are guessing! You don't have a clue what the Gov't is going to say (crop reports) and usage reports or what China is going to buy and you don't know what the crops are doing in other countries...let along what the FUNDS are going to do!

I have friends that have tried to play the market...and they would make $2000 then lose $5000. He was getting killed with margin calls and most of the time he was about even!

Not worth the risk when you are dealing with that big of contracts!

rcreech
12-08-2010, 10:54 PM
btw....how did we get off on this tangent?

Why am I always the a hole fighting these crazy people on here?

LOL

hotwater
12-08-2010, 11:05 PM
You are guessing! You don't have a clue what the Gov't is going to say (crop reports) and usage reports or what China is going to buy and you don't know what the crops are doing in other countries.

I have friends that have tried to play the market...and they would make $2000 then lose $5000. He was getting killed with margin calls and most of the time he was about even!

Not worth the risk when you are dealing with that big of contracts!


If your friend was getting killed with margin calls he didn't have enough money to begin with, $2000 - $5000 would be good money day trading (soybeans) with volume (10+ contracts), but long term making that would require less than 5 contracts with soybeans. It's not for the weak or someone with shallow pockets (less than $50,000). The shallow pocket part is why I haven't gone back yet.

Reports, news, and purchases don't always affect future markets, like stocks. I've seen many reports that have come out one way and the market runs opposite. What has a direct effect on movement is panic, fear, greed, and the funds! Like I said before I know it's hard to believe, but it was good talking with someone who know a little about the markets.

rcreech
12-08-2010, 11:11 PM
If your friend was getting killed with margin calls he didn't have enough money to begin with, $2000 - $5000 would be good money day trading (soybeans) with volume (10+ contracts), but long term making that would require less than 5 contracts with soybeans. It's not for the weak or someone with shallow pockets (less than $50,000). The shallow pocket part is why I haven't gone back yet.

Reports, news, and purchases don't always affect future markets, like stocks. I've seen many reports that have come out one way and the market runs opposite. What has a direct effect on movement is panic, fear, greed, and the funds! Like I said before I know it's hard to believe, but it was good talking with someone who know a little about the markets.

I disagree...as the crop reports almost always change the market one way or the other.

The last crop report came out and corn and beans OPENED limit up!
I would be more then happy to post a chart on here if you would like!



Ok...you just made my point with your last post!
A report come out one way...and the market can go the other way!

It can not be predicted


If you can predict the markets why do you need a lot of margin money????
If you can predict the market then that means you are always right and shouldn't need margin money!

btw...the friend I am talking about is a very large farmer and money isn't an issue!

rcreech
12-09-2010, 08:17 AM
It's not for the weak or someone with shallow pockets (less than $50,000). The shallow pocket part is why I haven't gone back yet.



I just seen that you said this in the post above!

You say "is why I haven't gone back yet"......

That means you have lost your arse...or again makes my point again that you can't predict the market. If you know the market you DON'T need deep pockets or margin money. You only need deep pockets or margin money when you are on the wrong side, or as some call it....WRONG!

So now...are you still telling everyone on here that you can predict the grain markets?
:laugh:

If so...you are the first person that I have ever met that could do so!

btw...I can "guess" what the markets do just like you only I don't just don't have money on the line, I have CORN AND BEANS.
I am not playing the game on paper...I am playing the game for real. Of course that is where options come in (which I am not real comfortable with yet).

That is why I know you are "bluffing" me!

Playing the grain markets is no different then sitting at the Roulette table.

Is it gonna fall on black or red! :)

Ya just don't know!

MOB
12-09-2010, 05:17 PM
A good buddy of mine is a crop farmer. He sent me an email and said he had a surefire way for me to invest in the markets and be rich beyond my wildest dreams. All I had to do was to call him and ask him what he contracted his corn and beans for and do the exact opposite!

americanlawn
12-09-2010, 05:34 PM
I spose this topic fits this thread in regard to fertilizer pricing.

I listen to 1 1/2 hours of the "Farm & Market Report" nearly every day on WHO Radio. Today they mentioned that Brazil was slightly wet, while Argentina was going through dry conditions. Bottom line -- there are so many variables all over the planet that change on a daily basis.

One problem.......... If I had a crystal ball, I'd have to decide between living in the British Virgin Islands & the U.S. Virgin Islands. :laugh::laugh:

(family farm = 540 acres of corn & soybeans in NW Iowa)

btw....how did we get off on this tangent?

Why am I always the a hole fighting these crazy people on here?

LOL

rcreech
12-09-2010, 06:05 PM
A good buddy of mine is a crop farmer. He sent me an email and said he had a surefire way for me to invest in the markets and be rich beyond my wildest dreams. All I had to do was to call him and ask him what he contracted his corn and beans for and do the exact opposite!

:laugh:

You don't know how much truth there is that!

Shegardi
12-09-2010, 11:05 PM
Talked to my supplier today. Urea has gone up to about $ 600/ton in the last couple of days.

rcreech
12-10-2010, 12:09 AM
Not good!
Act like u r on a roller coaster and u can hear the clicking going up the hill.
U don't know when it's going to stop

I was at a crop insurance mtg today and one guy said we culd c $8 corn in the spring...then another guy said he thinks corn will b around $3-4

Moral of the story...nobody knows but we have a crazy ride ahead

I think if u wait until spring u r making the wrong decision
JMO
Posted via Mobile Device

phasthound
12-10-2010, 12:26 AM
One thing you can bet on is global population growth. These people have to eat and the developing countries are demanding better diets. All this equals more demand for fert. That is unless something terrible happens and then we'll be worried about other things than lawn care.

rcreech
12-10-2010, 07:54 AM
Totally agree Barry!What people don't realize is that corn is a big player but this is truly a supply and demand issue from across the waters.

We are all going to be fighting over the same product.

This is worse case scenario...but corn could drop to $3 and urea STILL go up!

It is all about world supply now!

phasthound
12-10-2010, 10:49 AM
This is worse case scenario...but corn could drop to $3 and urea STILL go up!


Rodney, in your opinion what would cause something like that to happen?

rcreech
12-10-2010, 11:27 AM
Rodney, in your opinion what would cause something like that to happen?

This could really happen! We talked about it yesterday.

The reason they are calling for $3-4 corn is the wheat crop out west is not good so it could get torn out and I heard corn is stealing a lot of cotton acres.

They are already prediction corn acres to be WAY UP.

With that said...if acres are way up..and yields are too and demand is dropped that will not affect the GLOBAL demand for UREA or other ferts.

Back in the fall of 2008 28-0-0 was $400 a ton
Today it is $350 a ton
I paid for mine back in August and got it for $180

If acres are up and price is down...we will still pay $350-400 for 28-0-0.



Now on the other side.....

The bull market (guy I talked to yesterday) is saying that we will see high dollar corn all next year due to DEMAND. Even up to $8.

We had a really early harvest this year and when the Govt was checking bins for carryover corn...they were counting a lot of the NEW CROP corn harvest.

Therefore this county is running way short on corn.
This will make for even more acres to go into production which will take more N.

Now if we have a BIG crop this after adding this many acres...then next year price may be way down, but if we have a short crop again, WATCH OUT!

It is though the rood right now!
I just question how ethanol plants, livestock producers etc will be profitable and therefore they won't buy.
Plus...the livestock industry uses a lot of P and K in their diets also so they are already getting killed.

Could affect the livestock industry BAD!


Now see why nobody has a clue at where the market is going?

Duffster
12-10-2010, 11:30 AM
Isn't cotton way up?

I don't see why anymore cotton would switch to corn.

americanlawn
12-10-2010, 06:45 PM
Good stuff. Another current major factor is the value of the U.S. Dollar. It may help American exports, but it also raises the price of what we buy in this Country (gasoline, fert, and most other things). I think gold was $900 an ounce a year or so ago. Now it's up to $1400. Don't quote me on these figures cuz I don't buy gold, cuz our money is tied up in our business. Same with American farmers.

I know guys who recently locked in their spring pre/fert price at under $13.50 per bag. Guys like this usually have a reputable chemical rep that advises them regarding price fluctuations, and discount options like prepayment, early delivery, quantity buying, rebates, etc. (thanks Agrium) :usflag:

jasontimm
12-10-2010, 09:40 PM
I honestly dont see $8.00 dollar corn, i'd put money o it being topped out now, thats unless their is some odd weather, (disaster) this economy cant withstand $5.00 dollar corn the the way it is because guess what, everything goes up with corn, Urea, well you dont need supply and demand for it to go up, they raise the price because they can!! I'm glad my shed is full to cover me through most of next year, and if it goes down in the spring, then good, but at lease i know where i can set my prices at for this up coming year and budget.

jasontimm
12-10-2010, 09:48 PM
Good stuff. Another current major factor is the value of the U.S. Dollar. It may help American exports, but it also raises the price of what we buy in this Country (gasoline, fert, and most other things). I think gold was $900 an ounce a year or so ago. Now it's up to $1400. Don't quote me on these figures cuz I don't buy gold, cuz our money is tied up in our business. Same with American farmers.

I know guys who recently locked in their spring pre/fert price at under $13.50 per bag. Guys like this usually have a reputable chemical rep that advises them regarding price fluctuations, and discount options like prepayment, early delivery, quantity buying, rebates, etc. (thanks Agrium) :usflag:


Hey Larry, Great link! i laughed my a$$ off!!!

Hissing Cobra
12-10-2010, 10:17 PM
For the past two months, we've been calling all of our customers who are large enough to qualify for our Early Order Program and locking them into TODAY'S pricing. If you look at the market for the raw materials, you'll see that they've been on the rise for the past few months and this WILL affect your fertilizer pricing in the spring.

For anyone who buys more than 40 bags per round, you should definitely look into locking it in NOW (depending upon if you qualify for the minimums). If you don't have storage, invest in a nicely built shed so that it can be delivered to your location and stored inside. Obviously, the size of the shed will be dependent upon how much you need to order. It's in everyone's best interest to be able to store their materials just in case this stuff happens.

Hissing Cobra
12-10-2010, 10:20 PM
For the past two months, we've been calling all of our customers at our JDL location who are large enough to qualify for our Early Order Program and locking them into TODAY'S pricing. If you look at the market for the raw materials, you'll see that they've been on the rise for the past few months and this WILL affect your fertilizer pricing in the spring.

For anyone who buys more than 40 bags per round, you should definitely try to lock it in NOW. If you don't have storage, invest in a nicely built shed so that it can be delivered to your location and stored inside. Obviously, the size of the shed will be dependent upon how much you need to order. It's in everyone's best interest to be able to store their materials just in case this stuff happens.

rcreech
12-10-2010, 11:56 PM
Two months ago I posted on fert going up and nobody believed me
They will find out very soon that I wasn't just posting for the fun of it
Guys...this is for real
Glad I am out of the crazy game
Posted via Mobile Device

hotwater
12-11-2010, 02:14 AM
I disagree...as the crop reports almost always change the market one way or the other.

The last crop report came out and corn and beans OPENED limit up!
I would be more then happy to post a chart on here if you would like!



Ok...you just made my point with your last post!
A report come out one way...and the market can go the other way!

It can not be predicted


If you can predict the markets why do you need a lot of margin money????
If you can predict the market then that means you are always right and shouldn't need margin money!

btw...the friend I am talking about is a very large farmer and money isn't an issue!

If money wasn't an issue with your friend then he'd have enough in his brokerage account and they wouldn't call asking for more.

You really wouldn't understand, if you could see what I see your world would turn upside down! I need at least 50k because a soybean contract in the summer can have a margin of 4-6k, that limits me to 10-12 contracts when trading long term. If I day trade I only have to cover 12% of the margin, just as long as I'm flat on the close. I need to have a little extra money because I don't always call the bottom or the top, but I'm AlWAYS no more than 4 points off ($200 per contract). To prove it I'll call corn for summer 2011...give me a day or so to look through things, when I post the price and you see I'm right I want an apology!

Hissing Cobra
12-11-2010, 09:16 AM
If money wasn't an issue with your friend then he'd have enough in his brokerage account and they wouldn't call asking for more.

You really wouldn't understand, if you could see what I see your world would turn upside down! I need at least 50k because a soybean contract in the summer can have a margin of 4-6k, that limits me to 10-12 contracts when trading long term. If I day trade I only have to cover 12% of the margin, just as long as I'm flat on the close. I need to have a little extra money because I don't always call the bottom or the top, but I'm AlWAYS no more than 4 points off ($200 per contract). To prove it I'll call corn for summer 2011...give me a day or so to look through things, when I post the price and you see I'm right I want an apology!

Not to sound disrespectful, but you're trying to convince us about the markets after you've basically put yourself out of business while playing them? That's like taking advice about robbing banks from a bank robber while he's sitting in jail after getting caught.

rcreech
12-11-2010, 10:50 AM
If money wasn't an issue with your friend then he'd have enough in his brokerage account and they wouldn't call asking for more.

You really wouldn't understand, if you could see what I see your world would turn upside down! I need at least 50k because a soybean contract in the summer can have a margin of 4-6k, that limits me to 10-12 contracts when trading long term. If I day trade I only have to cover 12% of the margin, just as long as I'm flat on the close. I need to have a little extra money because I don't always call the bottom or the top, but I'm AlWAYS no more than 4 points off ($200 per contract). To prove it I'll call corn for summer 2011...give me a day or so to look through things, when I post the price and you see I'm right I want an apology!

:laugh:

That is like saying you shouldn't walk into Vegas without $50,000 to gamble with.

Whatever you take you can lose. My friend chooses to play small and take small chances. He is a very successful farmer and land owner. Why would he put his butt on the line for 50 grand! :dizzy:

You said you don't have the money to get into this right now...so when you finally do get the money, why would you play the grain markets????

The way you do it is suicide...the way my friend does it is because he LOVES it and he TRIES to make money.

Long story short...you don't know more then anybody else in or watching the market.

You can predict the price for next summer but you are guessing just like me and everyone else!


AGAIN...you are guessing the market not predicting it.

If you could predict the market you would be swimming in millions, you wouldn't complain about not having enough money to play the markets...and you wouldn't be on Lawnsite!
:laugh:

rcreech
12-11-2010, 10:54 AM
Not to sound disrespectful, but you're trying to convince us about the markets after you've basically put yourself out of business while playing them? That's like taking advice about robbing banks from a bank robber while he's sitting in jail after getting caught.

EXACTLY!!!!

He is one of those guys that will tell you he won $1000 from a slot machine BUT won't tell you he spent $5000 to get it!
:dizzy:

Where we haul our grain is one of the largest terminals in 100's of miles. They can hold over 3 million bushels of corn and beans. Before I sell I usually talk to them and this is all they do...and they usually can tell me what they "think" it will do, but sometimes they are right and sometimes they are not.

Point is...people that do it for a living every day don't know!
:)

rcreech
12-11-2010, 12:47 PM
Hey Larry, Great link! i laughed my a$$ off!!!

What link?

Didn't see one

americanlawn
12-11-2010, 05:17 PM
Hey bud -- just click the link on the bottom of any of my posts. It's my current "signature". I'll leave it on there for a couple more days just so the slow pokes in Ohio have a chance to bring in their Mother Ship for extended remedial help. :laugh::laugh:

jasontimm -- COOL brother. :waving:

Hissing Cobra -- nice things you are doing for your guys. :usflag:

Got more fun changes in regard to my "signature", but I will put them on hold for folks like rcreech. :laugh::laugh:

I figure the moderators are laughing their a$$s off. Just a guess :laugh::laugh:

What link?

Didn't see one

Hissing Cobra
12-12-2010, 01:09 AM
Hissing Cobra -- nice things you are doing for your guys. :usflag:

Thanks, just trying to ensure that our store is doing anything it can to survive. If we don't do this type of stuff, our store will be closed and I'll be without a job. Basically, we're doing what they're paying us to do. I like my current situation and don't want to jeopardize it.:weightlifter:

phasthound
12-12-2010, 10:16 AM
Two months ago I posted on fert going up and nobody believed me


Hey, don't call me nobody! :)

Buck_wheat
12-12-2010, 11:13 AM
Forget about all of the conventional methodology for determining commodity values in the future; prices for everything are going up-up-up. If any of you pups remember the Jimmy Carter era, what's coming will make that look like a brownie convention.

1. Long term cold weather projections
2. Legislated increase in ethanol content in gasoline
3. China with a trillion US dollars wanting more than the paper they are printed on (hard assets like real estate, equipment, etc. all will drive the price of everything UP!)
4. The Arabs sitting on almost a trillion dollars worth of worthless dollars also, they are buying worthless euro's and will also want some hard US assets for their paper.
5. Oslama Bama pumping another 2 trillion dollars of worthless paper into the economy that has to be spent.

I have purchased enough overproduction runs from Helena Chem to last for about two years. It's now stacked in my warehouse.

Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it; Venezuala-hyper inflation; Phillipines - hyper-inflation; Germany's Weimar Republic- Hyper inflation.

US gasoline prices already over $3.00 round these parts, (a month agao I was paying $2.50) green bean, tomato, pepper and other produce futures doubling on the cold weather in our farm lands here, and when was the last time you looked at the price per lbs. for a steak? How's about $10 - $14.00 and I don't even live in the big city.

When's the last time you were able to raise YOUR prices? Revenues going down, costs going up... it's a monumental fluster cluck that will be a FUBAR of biblical proportion, and yes, IT CAN HAPPEN HERE!

Wake up... soon enough confederate money will be worth more than the US dollar :clapping:... Save your DIXIE cups, THE SOUTH SHALL RISE AGAIN:drinkup:

ted putnam
12-12-2010, 06:01 PM
Forget about all of the conventional methodology for determining commodity values in the future; prices for everything are going up-up-up. If any of you pups remember the Jimmy Carter era, what's coming will make that look like a brownie convention.

1. Long term cold weather projections
2. Legislated increase in ethanol content in gasoline
3. China with a trillion US dollars wanting more than the paper they are printed on (hard assets like real estate, equipment, etc. all will drive the price of everything UP!)
4. The Arabs sitting on almost a trillion dollars worth of worthless dollars also, they are buying worthless euro's and will also want some hard US assets for their paper.
5. Oslama Bama pumping another 2 trillion dollars of worthless paper into the economy that has to be spent.

I have purchased enough overproduction runs from Helena Chem to last for about two years. It's now stacked in my warehouse.

Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it; Venezuala-hyper inflation; Phillipines - hyper-inflation; Germany's Weimar Republic- Hyper inflation.

US gasoline prices already over $3.00 round these parts, (a month agao I was paying $2.50) green bean, tomato, pepper and other produce futures doubling on the cold weather in our farm lands here, and when was the last time you looked at the price per lbs. for a steak? How's about $10 - $14.00 and I don't even live in the big city.

When's the last time you were able to raise YOUR prices? Revenues going down, costs going up... it's a monumental fluster cluck that will be a FUBAR of biblical proportion, and yes, IT CAN HAPPEN HERE!

Wake up... soon enough confederate money will be worth more than the US dollar :clapping:... Save your DIXIE cups, THE SOUTH SHALL RISE AGAIN:drinkup:

...and all this time I thought we were well on our way to recovery:rolleyes:

I'll have to admit I'm a little worried.

rcreech
12-13-2010, 11:43 AM
Hey, don't call me nobody! :)

I know you agreed Barry!

I think it is going to get down right ugly!


I was thinking of buying an extra load to have or resell...and chickened out, probably should have just done it!

Anyone hearing any new info?

For you guys that are getting last year pricing and can still get it, I would stock up or buy some and resell it.

Our prices have already gone up so I can't do that now!
:cry: