Are we heading for a recession?

[Ocutter]

Watching CNN the other night I heard an analyst say that there might be a recession. Problem is if there is one then that might affect my price raises strategy next season. I might be thinking too much about this. I realize people will drop off anyhow (that Im not worried about) I just dont want to lose too much because of it. For those who went through the last one (late 80s i think) what will you do to prepare for it? Thanks.

[65hoss]

Whether or not we go into some sort of a recession is not completely detrimental. The truth is, most of the workers in this country have not seen their true net worth or net income go up. In most cases, their pay will remain the same.

[BUSHMASTER]

it seems to me that most of my customers will still not be able to find the time to maintain their yards....As their used to having it keep.....i may be wrong?

[awm]

Thats why i try not to allow to much
overhead to build up .I keep my total
personal bills below a thousand.
My wife matches that but she pays for
things we could do with out.TVservices etc.
We could hold out for a while before i
had to get out the rabbit gun.TM

[cantoo]

I would think that if there was a recession your customers would be too busy trying to make money to even consider cutting their own lawn. In my opinion when things get tough people work more hours to try to make the same money or to save their jobs, the last thing they want to do when they get home from work is to do lawn work. Besides that they would have to lay out more cash to buy the equipment to do the work. They might want you to cut it every two weeks instead. The other thing is they don't want the neighbours to know they are having money trouble so the lawnguy would be the last to go.

[chrisbolte]

we are heading toward a resession or at least a slow down. There are many factors pointing to that. The key to a ressession is how it will effect you.

[dmk395]

Everyone listen up, we arent heading for a recession its just propaganda the Bush administration is laying out because if we do finally hit a recession they dont want theiradministration to be blamed for it. All this is propaganda, however stay tuned as Greenspan may make a move soon, and buy the way he is the most powerful man in the country, not the president!

[SKDCO]

dmk395;
You are correct by saying that we are NOT heading for a reccesion,BUT it isn't neccesarily the GOP party or the Demo party either. The fact is that the "slow down" is being caused by the fact that we still do not have a president. It doesn't matter which one is crying but that someone is. When it all said and done and everyone is settling in to their positions, everything will even out and continue as it has.

[Keith]

Slow downs are caused by people not spending money, no matter what the trigger. Then the chain reaction starts. That's where the recession starts. How far it goes, before corrected depends on the method used to deal with it. In other words, it is easier to stay out of a recession than it is to get out of one.

If you have doubts about buying things, feel guilty about eating at Carabba's every two weeks when you used to eat there every week. If you put off that truck purchase because you want to see what happens to the economy. You are helping the slow down

[Edited by Keith on 12-08-2000 at 03:04 AM]

[turfman99]

We just ordered a new tractor today. We did that, because we need to replace it, because we will need it in another two months. We don't know who's going to be president, but we do know we need the tractor, we know we have the work for it, so thats that. We also are ordering the new pickup for next year. I signed several landscape construction jobs this week to start 3 to 4 months from now. Even got a couple of down payments on those.

It would take a major or serious adverse economic event to change the economy much.

65hoss touched on an important point, most wage earners have not seen their incomes keep pace with inflation.Most incomes are not keeping pace with inflation, even with 3% annual inflation.

Does anybody remember:

18% prime interest rates??
25% inflation rates ??
energy price increases of over 50% in 6 months??
The SL fiascio??
I was mowing lawns for a living as a two man show in those days. Started on my own at the height of the reccession in 1981 with a newly purchased house and and expecting a baby.

That was about 20 years ago.

Does anybody remember the last real slow down?? 1991...
The Gulf war.

Look at the yo-yo stock market, everythign is going to be fine, just the normal hiccups and corections of an economy. King and President Greenspan has his hand firmly on the interest rate button and that is what controls the economy, well that and the high tech companies.

Things that are out of control are like new vehicle prices..., $ 45,000 for a full size SUV.. please.. how many families can afford $ 450 car payments???.. thats insane.

[chrisbolte]

I am a economics and business major and for those of you that say our economy is not slowing down or going into a recession you are crazy. Those of you that say BUSH is just making it up that is pathetic. There are many proven facts that say our economy is slowing down. I will list a few
1)interest rates (we are raising interest rates to try to slow the economy.)
2)lower than expected sales(cars + computers)
3)foriegn problems (such as fuel. Our country is so relient on fuel that a few cent raise in fuel cost will cause inflation. We now have had a large rise in feul costs so obvisouly we will have inflation!
Anyone that will like to disagree with me please email me or put a response and I will show and prove to you more factors.

[HOMER]

I ain't lost a single customer to this fear of recession. i have problems when I visualize 65 to 85 year olds maintaining their own lawn. The other side of the coin are the ones young enough to do it but too uppity to ever be seen doing it or too busy making their own businesses work!!!!!!!!

It might jump up and bite me right in the ol' butt, but I doubt my business, with my customer mix, will be affected at all.

but hey.......................been wrong before.
Some of them old folks still have their old Snapper push mowers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Homer

[65hoss]

Although, in a slow down, some of our customers might go with the lowballers.

Greenspan is the most powerful man. The one that controls the finances of the market, or at least has the biggest impact, does have power.

We are potentially headed for a slow down, but not yet. The only real slow down is the ghost companies. Meaning internet and computer companies that post no profits. These companies were the case of the major run ups, and now are taking the greatest beating. The REAL companies are going just about the same as they were in the late 90's. This may be a great thing for our economy, people will stop thinking that investing is easy money to millionaire status. After all the hoopla over technology stocks goes bust, we must look back at the tested truths about the economy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature976218132.html

[Lazer]

We don't participate in any recessions.

[MOW ED]

Chrisbolte,
I agree with you that things are slowing down and correct me if I am wrong but Greenspan stated the other day that he may "lower interest rates" to get things moving again.

I agree with the evidence that you present but what do you attribute the slowdown to?

[SKDCO]

Kudos to turfmann99 and Keith! What I meant earlier was that with uncertainty comes fear and that will cause a "pause" in buying and/or "impulse" spending. I heard this a.m. that Intel, Motorola and GM are backing off their 4th quarter predictions. Believed in part on the uncertainty of the current election status. I still believe that once everything is settled the economy will bounce right back. Not a recession but a "pause".

[awm]

Im with Homer on this one.The only
problem comes if inflation increases also.
At 5 dollars for a loaf of bread,they wont
have much for mowing.Not many would TM COUNTRY

[paul]

We are seeing a slow down in housing starts in our area, car sales are falling off and with interest rates going up I expect to see more slow downs in the private sector. What that means to me is that more companys will move in to my area of work (goverment contracts).

Turfman I remember the 80's and late 70's with juice loans and houseing contractors going out of business every week, cut throat pricing just to get work. I also remember the big "hits" we took from them. I don't do work for builders anymore, I don't do home owners, If they can't guarantee my money I don't work for them. :)

What to look forward to in the future, larger companys buying out smaller ones, more regulation on chemicals, more regulation on noise, lower emisions on equipment, higher cost of doing business, higher fuel costs......

Good points... water conservation = less green area more plants and mulching, more reinstalls. Less compitition as more of the green areas are reduced mowing companys only will be reduced. Snow plowing will move to a higher profit level in the snow belt.



will add more later have to run.........

[davesgs75]

SKDCO I agree with your last post. History shows that every election year the economy slows, there is always uncertainity as to the out come of the elction, and policy of the elected. this year in all the election mess has added even more of a strain than ever before.

Note what happened earlier when the supreme court ruling first came out, and everyone for a while thought that the election mess was over, the stock market went up. Also heard within the last few weeks on some news show, i think on the radio that new car sales were booming. The auto industry has always been one to watch, as they seem to be the first to slow down as the economy falls off.

[Evan528]

i dont think we would really loose customers because lets face it... the bussiness men arent gonna come home after a long day in the office and do the lawn. ON the other hand I think it would effect the amount of full service work we do. If people are short on money there not gonna run to have there beds mulched and shrubs trimmed. To alot of people there yards are not there top priority when there short on money.. theyd get the grass cut and let the rest go...

[Keith]

Originally posted by Evan528
i dont think we would really loose customers because lets face it... the bussiness men arent gonna come home after a long day in the office and do the lawn.

Yeah, but they might have plenty of time if they are laid off.

[chrisbolte]

It may be good for a slow down. Unemployment will go up a little bit and we wont have the problems finding workers. With a slowdown I agree with many, we probably wont lose customers. Greenspan does have a large amount of control of the economy and a little decrease in interest rates will help us.

[Paradise Yard Service]

The 80s saw tremendous housing sales here with the Yen at an all time high. When the Yen fell so did Hawaii's economy! Brother-in-laws Bikini business went from 5 million gross sales to 3 million currently. Its basically been a bad year in Hawaii since early 90s. Local economists say we are moving to greener pastures with more tourist viists/some venture capital for the geeky stuff. Still will not completely recover to 80s hayday until the Yen strengthens. Even then the Japanese have learned there lesson and are much more conservative spenders. Through it all my lawn buis grew in a drought (80-81), and has kept growing since. I turn down lots of work to make sure I have plenty of surf time, PRIORITIES!
Aloha, PYS


BE KIND TO THE PEOPLE YOU MEET ON THE WAY UP, BECAUSE THEY ARE THE SAME ONES YOU'LL MEET ON THE WAY DOWN!