Originally Posted by Skipster
Remember that the MSMA issue is all about EPA regulations, not registrant P&L. MSMA has been off patent for many years and no registrant has offered anything close to a replacement, so it doesn't help any of the registrants at all to have some of these uses removed from the label.
For those who don't know, herbicide ai patents last for 17 years. However, the patent covers a lot of developmental time before the EPA registration and even the first sales. So, while the average herbicide takes about 12 years and $150 MM to get to market, it's usually only covered by patent for 5 to 8 years during sales.
As some commonly used and very effective products come up for re-registration by EPA over the next few years, I fully expect to see their prices rise and at least one off patent product to halt production. EPA demands the re-registration dossier only from the registrant, not all packagers. Because the dossier can cost upwards of $150 MM to compile and packagers aren't willing to foot some of the bill for re-registration, I predict that at least one commonly used, cheap, and effective product will not be re-registered in the next 3 years.
Read my above Post about "Asulox" That was purely a case of EPA re-registration cost knocking it out of the ball game.