Ever think about aeration in these conditions the day before a rain? Our cool season grasses don't allow water infiltration like the NWSG that we've destroyed. You're going to have major run-off on non irrigated drought stricken hard pan now if you don't do something to help with the infiltration. Do me a favor, go out to one of these areas and dump a bucket of water on it...report back on what happens.
It's all about annual seed rain along with disturbance, many different ways to get the same result IMO. And, if I can relieve severe compaction, get water in the ground and to the roots, and get a good disturbance event with aggressive aeration then that will have to do.