Good shot of the pimply freeze-thaw ground, Ax.
Now can you drop a tiny light down into one of those aeration holes and tell us if the seed is germinating down there? The deeper soil must remain warmer...right?
No germination around here from similar seed sown on November 17, ( except the sample planted inside). Not much rain; about 32 today. About a half inch of snow fell, which melted in a few hours.
Oddly enough, my neighbor, (whose new lawn failed due to heat and drought) planted some seed on his weedy failed lawn about 30 days ago. Pennington seed. It was about an inch high today.