Another El Niño?

Discussion in 'Lawn Mowing' started by Mark McC, Aug 6, 2004.

  1. Mark McC

    Mark McC LawnSite Bronze Member
    Posts: 1,565

    According to the National Weather Service, another El Niño may be forming.

    The NWS's Climate Prediction Center posed a notice on its Web site (announcment located at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
    that "The recent increase and eastward expansion of positive SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode."

    Based on the supporting data, the agency concluded that there is "about a 50% chance that the NOAA operational definition for El Niño...will be satisfied for the period June-August 2004."

    NOAA has not declared this an El Nino episode, but we would all do well to track these developments.
     
  2. wriken

    wriken LawnSite Silver Member
    Posts: 2,154

    whats that mean for weather in Mich, for the winter?
     
  3. mtdman

    mtdman LawnSite Gold Member
    Posts: 3,137

    Good question. Last time we didn't have snow all winter, back in 97-98. Let's NOT hope for that this year!

    :D
     
  4. two_planks

    two_planks LawnSite Member
    Posts: 206

    please god say it is so. Last one here we had record snowfalls and were still hiking to ski in July. The rocks in the pick in my signature were all filled in (thats a 15' drop I'm going off there and it was less than 5 that year. YeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaw
     
  5. two_planks

    two_planks LawnSite Member
    Posts: 206

    El Nino 'could strike this year'

    By Richard Black
    BBC science correspondent



    El-Nino can cause billions of dollars of economic damage globally with ruined crops and floods
    An El Nino event may be on its way this year, according to the US government's climate prediction centre.
    The agency says it has detected changes in sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which occur before El Nino.

    However, other climatologists caution that it is too early to make a firm judgement as the Pacific has been highly variable this year.

    Seven years ago, the event caused billions of dollars of economic damage globally, with ruined crops and floods.

    El Nino usually occurs about once every seven years.

    The last major event was in 1997 and 1998, so in the words of a prominent UK climatologist, "we're due for one."

    Based on observations in the Pacific Ocean, the US climate prediction centre says there is a 50% chance that it is coming this year.

    Some other scientists agree with the US analysis but others say it is too early to tell.

    Certainly, it is unusual for El Nino to begin this late in the year.

    Highly variable

    Habitually, the first signs are detected in April or May and climatologists say the Pacific has been highly variable this year, making firm prediction difficult.

    Each El Nino begins with an unusual warming pattern in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, but later affects weather around the tropics.

    The 1997-98 event caused billions of dollars of economic damage globally with crops ruined in parts of Africa and Asia, floods on the west coast of the Americas, and lost fish catches.

    Already, Agricultural experts in east Asia and Australia are warning of significant crop losses if another El Nino does arrive.

    However, not all the effects are negative. A US hurricane forecasting centre has revised its projected number of hurricanes and tropical storms downwards in the light of the El Nino prediction.
     
  6. geogunn

    geogunn LawnSite Gold Member
    from TN
    Posts: 3,010

    I don't want the destruction of the el nino weather pattern but I really enjoyed the warm winters.

    I think it was '98 that I didn't even shiver.

    GEO :)
     
  7. BladesAway

    BladesAway LawnSite Member
    from Ok
    Posts: 74

    I remember the last one. The summer was super hot here. I didn't think I would ever stop sweating!
     
  8. rodfather

    rodfather LawnSite Fanatic
    Posts: 9,501

    I remember the last one. The only good thing about it was we started mowing like 3 weeks earlier into the season due to the unusually warm winter.
     

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