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N prices going down after November

Discussion in 'Pesticide & Herbicide Application' started by americanlawn, Nov 25, 2007.

  1. americanlawn

    americanlawn LawnSite Fanatic
    from midwest
    Posts: 5,852

    Just checked the futures. Looks like natural gas prices will slowly decline after this month -- all the way through April....from $6.50 now to 5.50 in April (MMBTU). This also means the price of N will decrease.

    Anybody else see this? rscvp, thanks:usflag:
  2. MnLefty

    MnLefty LawnSite Senior Member
    Posts: 367

    I wouldn't bank on a decrease in price any time soon. It takes a period of time for input costs (natural gas, oil, fuel for production/shipping etc..) to cycle through cost of fert. All of those costs have been going up for a year or more and just now we're starting to feel the effects of fertilizer prices going up... It will take a period of time with continued decline in the true cost of most inputs to see prices come back down a bit.
  3. rcreech

    rcreech Sponsor
    Male, from OHIO
    Posts: 6,057

    I wouldn't bet on it!

    Natural Gas prices although important to fert...is a very small piece of the pie.

    Supply and demand is the driver, and with corn/ethanol, high export numbers ect....I think we are going to have a long road ahead.

    Or atleast this is what I have been told on both the ag side and lawn side.
  4. upidstay

    upidstay LawnSite Bronze Member
    from CT
    Posts: 1,346

    N, P, and K prices are all expected to continue to rise, with no end in sight. P is up 200% in under one year, with N and K close behind.

    Ethanol, China, and a couple of South American countries are seeing huge agricultural growth, and are gobbling up ag chemicals by the super tanker load.
  5. Hissing Cobra

    Hissing Cobra LawnSite Senior Member
    Posts: 700

    I fixed it for you! :cool2: Just kidding. At this time, we're seeing record increases and I think rcreech is right, we're all in for bumpy ride.
  6. Bandit 1

    Bandit 1 LawnSite Member
    Posts: 5

    the problem is we ship a lot of our urea into the US, we are no longer a net exporter. hopefully with the price going up someone will take some of the urea plants in this country out of mothballs
  7. Marcos

    Marcos LawnSite Gold Member
    Posts: 3,720

    I've seen this 'attempt' at optimism happen just before winter a couple years ago.
    Then, of course, the north winds begin to blow harder than usual and we get much different news come the following spring or summer.
  8. grassguy_

    grassguy_ LawnSite Senior Member
    from Ohio
    Posts: 633

    Anticipate the fertilizer prices to keep there climb going as some prices have already jumped 10-15% on us beofre any winter/spring increases. As the demand goes higher and depending on how winter goes, which they are saying home heating oil and natural gas are going to go up again, the fertilizer prices will take off again be spring.
  9. rcreech

    rcreech Sponsor
    Male, from OHIO
    Posts: 6,057

    Hey Grassguy....great to hear from you. Hadn't heard from you in a while so I figuered you were hammering out the lawns! Hope you had a great season!

    To all,

    I was at an ag meeting yesterday and Richard Brock (Brock and Assoc) was there. This guy is one of the best in the business and knows his markets be it grain, fert, stocks and everything else. He has been in the business for about 30 years and people listen when he talks!

    This is what he said yesterday (shorted up of course)
    - Grain markets are not up because of ethanol...they are up because of the index funds trying to make money.
    - Crude is not up because of shortages...they are up because of the index funds because they are trying to make money. But he did say he thinks it will drop very soon.
    - Dollar is way down and will probably going down farther (which will hurt us bad)!
    - Natuaral gas is going to go through the roof as it always does in the winter
    - He specifically talked about fert for a while. Due to the low dollar, and all time exports that is why the fert costs are so high! He claims that increased use of fert on corn acres has affected the market...but that the dollar and exports are what are killing us.

    He says that we will be stuck in this trend for sometime until the dollar gets stonger! So I wouldn't expect fert to drop at all.

    Better buy up why you can!
  10. Ric

    Ric LawnSite Fanatic
    Posts: 11,956

    Ironically I read this post for the first time tonight while watching the Jeff Fowworth program "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader"

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