you think competition is bad NOW?

Discussion in 'Lawn Mowing' started by grass disaster, May 18, 2005.

  1. grass disaster

    grass disaster LawnSite Silver Member
    Posts: 2,582

    this is my theory.

    in about 3-5 years when the housing market slows down there will be an over abundance of lco's running around.

    in my opinion the housing market is bound to come to a screeching halt. when this does there will be thousands of carpenters,and various other tradesman, looking for work. they will all be thinking....... well now that we built all these houses now why don't i go and cut their lawn. besides i already have this big truck and this old wood hauler of a trailer. all i need now is a mower, trimmer and blower and i'm set to go. best of all i can still work on my tan.

    agree? disagreed
     
  2. topsites

    topsites LawnSite Fanatic
    Posts: 21,654

    I dunno but I'm a solo lawnboy with 52 grass accounts and I'm cutting 10 yards/day, sustained. Do that for 3, 4 days and then it's off to do mulch for a day (8-12 cu. yds/day delivered & spread), or just whatever other stuff needs doing. I am grossing 1,000 bucks every 3-4 days of actual work, by myself. No I am not joking, last week's deposit is for 1,800 dollars and it's 4 days ahead of schedule.

    And I'm constantly getting new calls and requests... LOL

    Slow-down in 2-3 years? Nobody can see that far ahead.

    Only thing has me worried is I've been running Peak Fuel budget for 7 weeks straight and the tanks are persistently down to critical levels by end of week. But so long I don't run out, the prices stay the same as last year.
    Besides, I just got the 1986 D-250 past 14mpg.

    Laters.
     
  3. Watkinslawnservice

    Watkinslawnservice LawnSite Senior Member
    Posts: 378

    I could see the housing market someday slowing down a little bit but as long as people keep making more people there will always be a good housing market. We have to put them somewhere. Plus if you are the established company when(and if) this happens the burdon will be on the newcomers not you.
     
  4. DennisF

    DennisF LawnSite Bronze Member
    from Florida
    Posts: 1,381

    I agree with part of your prediction. The part about more competition.

    But...I don't think that the housing market will decline appreciably in the next few years, or even in the foreseeable future. With all of the baby boomers retiring (I'm one of them) over the next 10-15 years, the demand for new home construction will skyrocket, while existing home sales should decline.

    These baby boomers will want:

    1.) Low maintenance on their part...meaning more work for the service sector.

    2.) High quality products and services, since they are retiring with a nice nest egg and are willing to spend money for comfort and most of all...quality.

    3.) Recreation and entertainment. Swimming pools, golf courses, high end dining....you get the idea.

    4.) This is the big one...convenience...meaning easy access to services. Most of the boomers that I know have worked their asses off all of their lives and want to relax and be....lazy when they retire. It's part of retirement and they feel that they deserve a laid back retirement. And they will be willing to pay for it...believe me.

    I truly believe that the baby boomers will be the salvation of the lawn care industry. They will be willing to pay more for lawn care (if it is high quality) because they have a healthy respect for people that perform manual labor. I know I do, because I worked my ass off, and I'm no different than any other ass busting Baby Boomer.

    This business WILL get better. Prices will rise to a level that is sustainable and reasonable.

    Your job is to survive until it happens.
     
  5. Doster's L & L

    Doster's L & L LawnSite Senior Member
    Posts: 616

    I really don't see housing ever slowing down. Now if the US were to have a nuclear bomb dropped on us, or serin gas to be dispersed throughout the country which wipes out most of the population of the country, then i could see housing slowing down. As long as people are reproducing, housing is not gonna slow down. Right now, the world's population is sky rocketing and has been since 1950+/-. Unless something dramatic happens, by 2030 i believe, there will be 20 billion people on the Earth. So no, i don't see housing slowing down any. I see it increasing!!
     
  6. Tharrell

    Tharrell LawnSite Silver Member
    Posts: 2,964

    I guess that could happen. Anytime a big layoff occurs, they show up. Most don't realize how hard the work is, or how to deal with people. Also, they probably won't get accounts that require professionalism like commercials or high end residentials.
     
  7. GreenUtah

    GreenUtah LawnSite Senior Member
    from SLC, UT
    Posts: 866

    I'll go with Dennis on this. Baby Boomers seeking their retirement lifestyle will drive all service industry and health care sectors. Immigration policies are not stemming population growth in any way and having a home is the American dream. Housing growth will continue as long as people can afford to build, maybe not in areas you expect, but it will continue.
     
  8. oldturf

    oldturf LawnSite Member
    Posts: 221

    Guys, baby boomers ,thats me, are going to downsize. The big home market is going to drop. We want condo's or some type of low maintenance life style. My wife wants smaller house to care for and less responsibility so we can travel. Tells me to get out of this summertime business or hire somebody to run it. At the rate I am going with employees, it don't look good. Just my perspective.
     
  9. orangejbird

    orangejbird LawnSite Member
    Posts: 62

    "Right now, the world's population is sky rocketing and has been since 1950+/-. Unless something dramatic happens, by 2030 i believe, there will be 20 billion people on the Earth."

    All the new LCO upstarts (from losing their construction jobs here) could go to Indonesia to mow high-rise balconies. :cool2:
     
  10. aclassic

    aclassic LawnSite Member
    Posts: 181

    yeah, i'm not worried about the next 3-5 years, and yes the baby boomers will help out alot w/ growth in our industry...but its what happens in 20-30 years when they're all dying off, then is when we may see problems.
     

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