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For those procrastinating

Discussion in 'Pesticide & Herbicide Application' started by turf hokie, Jan 17, 2009.

  1. turf hokie

    turf hokie LawnSite Silver Member
    Messages: 2,751

    Urea is up $75 per ton since December. Apparently this will be reflected in price increases that are going into effect at the end of the month. All my reps feel that we have seen the bottom of the fert market.

    We have ordered some material, not all due to the unknowns with the economy more so than material pricing.

    Spot market was up $10 yesterday.

    I dont know but just thought I would share.
  2. turfsolutions

    turfsolutions LawnSite Senior Member
    Messages: 854

    Was that before or after oil dropped another 10% this week? We are only at the beginning of a very long recession. Commodity prices won't be rising any time soon with the demand being so low. I am waiting to see how hard the lawn care market will be hit in 09 before being stuck with high priced fert. However, who really knows what the future holds??? Food production still needs to be met and fert might not be as recession succeptible as other commodities. Time will tell. Either way, overall operating costs will be lower than last year with gas and P being cheaper.
  3. tremor

    tremor LawnSite Bronze Member
    Messages: 1,476

    Demand isn't low. Agriculture demand is already pushing fertilizer back up.
    Farmers couldn't care less whether LCOs have customers or Golf Courses have members playing rounds. Hungry people still need to eat so farmers still plant, crops still grow & commodity fertilizers will flow.
  4. Smallaxe

    Smallaxe LawnSite Fanatic
    Messages: 10,082

    If you are referring to the larger crop farmers of the Plains, you are probably close to correct on your assumption. However, the cumulation of smaller acreages all over the country has significant impact, as well. Not all of our food supply has become "hot house chicken" from 'high energy inputs.' :)

    Around here we grow real chickens and real eggs. The high cost of fertilizer had a great effect on the amount used and to that extent - it had an effect on production and yeild. Admittedly , I do not have the stats - only the experience of the good folks in the field.

    Chickens are not our big production enterprise, but used as an exa., for the workings of agriculture in this area. We do not buy extravagant amounts of fert when the prices are high. Lawn care LCOs spend more per acre than agriculture does for sure.

    Suburbanites consume more npk/k than agriculture ever could in producing the alfalfa meal, corn meal and/or soybean meal.
    A blanket ban on Phosphorus for peoples' lawns would reduce the cost considerably, if Supply and Demand dictated costs. IMO.

    Of course, Supply and Demand had nothing to do with the $4.00/gal of gasoline, so the question remains -- Who decides what a ton of NPK is worth?

    Again - Just a thought. :)
  5. turfsolutions

    turfsolutions LawnSite Senior Member
    Messages: 854

    So true, supply and demand did have very little to do with $4 per gallon. Fortunately what went up fast, came down fast as well.

    A few examples of less of a demand for fert might be: A lot less rounds of golf will be played in the coming future so courses will have to cut back on their budgets, including maximizing fert applications and even reducing fert aps. Schools may look to cut back on expenses with less government support during tough times so fertiilizing the fields might get put on the not needed this year list.

    If fertilizer does remain a hot commodity then manufacturing of fertilizer will broaden thus increasing supply, and reducing demand and price. I am not saying that fert won't go up, but there are much greater things to be concerned about right now than a small percentage hike in fert costs which has always been the norm.

    Time will tell.:usflag:
  6. tlg

    tlg LawnSite Senior Member
    Messages: 651

    Even if demand increases I don't believe that production will. The fertilizer market is being tightly controlled IMO. If manufacturers can produce less at a higher price they can and will. The way I see it is if the supply is left tight then fertilizer is going to the highest bidder. Didn't we see this last summer. Demand was high and supply was available at a high prices. Our suppliers can only make so much. At least that's what they say. It's the same thing with rock salt right now. Limited production, limited supply and high prices.
  7. rcreech

    rcreech Sponsor
    Male, from OHIO
    Messages: 6,153

    I think we have bottomed out...and it is up from here!

    We will see!

    I think it is hard to say with everything that is going on in this world...but my gut says the fun is over!
  8. SpreadNSpray

    SpreadNSpray LawnSite Senior Member
    from MN
    Messages: 363

    Ok, here is my bet. I think we are close to the low for this spring. Fertilizer (N) will go up during the early spring and then drop lower than it is right now in early summer and level off into early 2010. Much will depend on both the U.S. and world economy. P/K might hold tight with less movement.
  9. rcreech

    rcreech Sponsor
    Male, from OHIO
    Messages: 6,153

    I would maybe agree with you on this!

    But is the chance worth taking? :cry:
  10. SpreadNSpray

    SpreadNSpray LawnSite Senior Member
    from MN
    Messages: 363

    Not for me, I try to live in the now:laugh: I can only store 1 semi load on sight.
    I might have to pull the trigger soon.

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