Sorry Chuck, it probably ain't happenin'
Although, let's hope the MRF medium range model starts predicting snow storms like it did during our last good snow year for our area.
<<...No Early Week Snowstorm Next Week [11/16 10PM EST]...
The models have continued to converge today (Thursday). Quite interestingly, they have converged on the old MRF solution. This is most intriguing because when the MRF is alone in its forecast, as it was a few days ago, it is typically grossly in error. I have often thought that the MRF has been overly criticized based on a few highly noteworthy failures. For example, in 1995-96 it was stellar, far and away the best of all of the medium-range models. However, it totally failed in its forecast for the massive storm that season. To this day, it is that failure that most forecasters seem to remember... forgetting its near perfection even 10 days in advance through most of the season! I'm not saying the MRF will do a wondrous job this season, but it is interesting that 95-96 was the last truly snowy season, as this winter is expected to be, and the MRF appears to be off on the right note this year! Be mindful that the apparent non-event is scheduled for Sun/Mon (the weak low heading well offshore), so there is still time for the situation to change again. So, I'm not declaring the MRF the victor yet, but it does appear on track to come out on top.>>
He goes on to talk a little about the lake effect machine for this weekend.
From:
http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html
